Don't think Williams will run 70 :(

>Those flags so rams don't score again
Lol

Did not expect the Rams to score so much

>>146668115
to be fair, 14 points is from a defensive TD and then the vikings head coach gifted the rams a TD by going for it on 4th inside his own territory

>>146667942
Sitting my white ass down and watching

I should make super degenerate bets more often

>>146668590
Imagine if you put $1000 on them instead

>>146668712
Shit just put 10

Going btts o2.5 in a league again tonight

>>146668712>>146668733

But I never would’ve made them then

whew
I knew that the rig was in for the Rams to win, but I didn't expect the Vikings offensive line to just completely shit the bed and allow NINE sacks lmao
Vikings offensive line was instructed to throw the game 100%; too big of an outlier on sacks making it obvious
For perspective, the NFL average is 2.6 sacks per game -- 9 is egregious, indication of shady dealings

>>146668840
i was just about to post asking about it. don't know what to make of perth. they beat auckland last week in a game i was lucky to have forgotten to bet on.

they have played 3 other similar teams to WS recently - macarthur, sydney, and western. got blanked in 2, netted 2 goals in one.

>>146668869
very sketchy play call on that 4th down at the end of the 1H. slow developing pass play on 4th and 2 in the your own territory when you're only down by 2 touchdowns, get the ball at the start of the 2H, and your defense has held them to 10 offensive points.

>>146668902
>>146668869
there were 4+ times Darnold held onto the ball, seeing the sack was coming, and not throwing it out of bounds / grounding
In addition, the entire second half Vikings were running the ball on plays where it made no sense to be running it, burning clock, not rushing back to the line
Genuinely, I think the Vikings were told to throw the game
>Oh but it's just Darnold, he sucks, he can't handle the pressure of high stakes games
There were so many questionable decisions made by the Vikings all night both offensively and defensively where it really makes me question it
It was expected that the rig was in for LA >>146661240 - I guess I just didn't think they would make it so obvious

>>146668877
I say they win again
It’s a long way to go so Auckland probably suffered from the travel a bit

>>146668869
>>146669008
another egregious indication
>no ref threw a penalty flag
>oh we're reversing the 1st down, even though no flag was ever thrown
even the commentators were going off script pointing out that this made no sense, that if no flag is thrown you can't enforce a penalty

Rams
Chiefs -
Commies +
Da bills

>>146669059
Did you see the triple flag to make sure rams didn't score again lol. You either toe the line or get fucked

>>146669063
there's 0% chance that the Rams are going to beat the Eagles at home
the Rams have the #26 defense overall, compared to the Eagles #1 defense
in addition, the Rams rushing defense is #22 - Barkley is going to tear them apart like tissue paper
even with all the rigging in the world, they won''t beat the Eagles, especially not at Eagles home

>>146669145
>having the #1 defense in the league is meaningless
>having the #1 running back in the league going up against the #22 rushing defense in the league is meaningless
Ok.
I'll make you deal - Rams beat the Eagles, I'll sharpie in the pooper - Eagles beat the Rams, you sharpie in the pooper. Deal?

>>146669179
That's gay

>>146668590
I love spamming 10¢ bets

>>146669196
if you are so confident the Rams are going to win, you should have no issue accepting this proposal
it's not going to happen - the Eagles are not only going to win, they will cover the -6 spread
Scared you're going to have to shove a sharpie up your ass, huh?

>>146669222
That’s basically what I do yeah.$15->$50 I’ll take it.

My bets today:

Alkmaar - Ajax BTTS @1.57
Dortmund to beat Holstein @1.52

I hope this isn’t a real thread.

over 8 corners
both teams to receive a card - yes
haaland over 0.5 shots on target
man city or draw
same game parlay @ 2.10

brentford 1W 1D 5L in their past 7, including being upset by plymouth argyle in the fa cup on the weekend. their 1 win was 5-0 result against southampton, and in the other six games they only managed to score 3 goals, and have now lost 3 straight games at home. when playing against sides in the top half of the table brentford is 2W 1D 7L.

while citys chances at a title are gone, a result here could help them get back into the top 5. unbeaten in their past 4 and entering tomorrows match on a 3 match winning streak, another win tomorrow would be city's first four match winning streak since october. even in citys poor run of form, they still manage to dominate sides in the bottom half of the table while playing on the road, 3W 1D this season.

maybe call city on the money line if you have enough confidence they have turned it around a bit in their past couple games and brentford is in quite poor form, but this isnt the same city that puts sides away by 4+ goals so it could be risky.

“Muh Fires” storyline bros we UP

wolfsburg v gladbach
over 7 corners
both teams to receive a card - yes
btts - yes
same game parlay @ 2.35

Random tennis multi

Thinking the Ravens get shit on

Bet the spread on Eagles -4.5
Bet the money line on Rams

Started with $400 and looking at divisional round

Commanders are massive underdogs, I can bet 200 and win 800

I can also put 400 on Chiefs with a 7.5 point spread.

What do you'll think of the Commanders /Lions game on the money line?

The Chiefs game has me nervous, can't find a variable spread under 7

>>146670347
go back

>>146670193
I don't think so.. Bills defense is too leaky; Ravens #1 rushing defense 80.1 yards allowed avg, #2 rushing defense Vikings 93.4 (power gap)
Ravens defense is overall much better
On top of their better defense, Ravens have the #1 offense in the league 424.9 yards avg compared to Bills #10 offense 359.1 avg
Ravens #1 rushing offense 187.6 to Bills #9 131.2
Bills lost to the Rams, lost to the Ravens 10-35 Sept 29
Derrick Henry & Lamar Jackson are freaks of nature - going up against the Bills #17 defense, #12 rushing defense
the Bills are slightly overrated due to the AFC East sucking asshole with 5-12 Jets, 4-13 Patriots, and 8-9 Dolphins; compared to Ravens in AFC North with 10-7 Steelers, 9-8 Bengals, 3-14 Browns
(and the Patriots only got their 4th win because the Bills had all their starters out)
Ravens are objectively a better team both in offense and in defense in all stats, while playing against stronger opponents than the Bills played against
the only thing Bills have in their favor in this match-up is that it is a home game, but even this I think is mitigated because of how run heavy Ravens are (compared to if Ravens were a pass heavy team playing away and not being able to communicate well)
Is it possible that the Bills pull out a win? Yeah, sure. But the Ravens will not get "shit on"

>>146668840
how do you feel about perth vs western sydney

also how do you guys feel about dortmund win+o2.5 in bundesliga

>>146667841
Where's that image from?

>>146670522
i was looking at that one too but i was thinking btts - yes instead of o2.5. in their games against all the sides in or near the relegation zone, dortmund has surrendered goals to all of them (bochum, heidenheim, hoffenheim, st pauli, augsburg). now all these games were at dortmund, but in a way thats even worse, that they cant reliably shut out the shitters. in this game they are giving you better odds for btts than over 2.5 goals, and with reports of schlotterback not expected to play tomorrow due to an illness, and even the manager being upset with the teams recent defensive performances, i doubt they manage to clean sheet these shitters either.

in games like this where one side is expected to dominate some bottom table shitter, race to 5 corners, or team to get the most corners, or even both, is almost like a free money parlay, because one side is just going to be hemmed in their own half for the majority of the game.

Jah sent me a message saying to bet on Chris wood anytime goal scorer.... So I did

>>146670815
i don't have btts as a single bet on my book, what do you suggest pairing it with?

>>146670880
on 365 they should have a result + btts option and that gives 2.75 for dortmund + btts. on the popular tab under btts and the over/under. if you parlay that with dortmund to get the most corners, you can get 4.00 odds. it is risky, but in 13/14 of dortmunds last league games both teams scored, and in every road league game, expect the first game of the season which ended 0-0, dortmund has surrendered at least 1 goal.

>>146670970
i'm on betonline, the match isn't popular enough so no single bet for btts

but i can get btts+total corners o7.5 for -129/1.78

and yes, this is also available

but then, if you think dortmund will win and btts has a good chance of hitting, then wouldn't btts+o2.5 also be a good play?

>>146670193
Henry will fuck them up. Ravens win big

>>146671059
So we can get another snoozefest afc championship where Lamar puts up 10 points in arrowhead? Allen gets through so he can get torched by KC in the revenge game.

>>146671001
for sure, but my book didnt have that option and if i made that parlay myself they gave me lower odds. just looking at the 2 bets alone, over 2.5 is 1.43 and btts is 1.53. yea holstein kiel is garbage and they should be put away here, but dortmund is inconsistent. lets say they manage to clean sheet them this game, dortmund has only scored 3+ goals while on the road in a league game once this season. they are also in the middle of playing 4 games in 12 nights, so lets say they get to a situation where they are up 2-0 and the game looks pretty done, they might take off their good players to rest them for their next game. either way you go for this, its going to rely on holstein kiel scoring 1 goal because i dont think dortmund will score 3. if you looked at the implied probability of team goals, holstein kiel has around a 70% chance of scoring 1 time, while dortmund only has around a 39% chance of scoring 3 times.

>>146671079
Bills run D will be exposed badly. Cap this. Ravens by 17+

actually the dortmund game might not be a good one, there are reports a lot of the team being sick with the flu, and 4 or 5 of the main starting 11 didnt even make the trip for this game. might have to look at the lineups before actually betting on any overs.

https://www.beinsports.com/en-au/football/bundesliga/articles/sahin-adamant-flu-ravaged-dortmund-are-up-for-kiel-fight-2025-01-13

>>146671408
yeah prob gonna stay away

>>146670535
answer me

Gonna put 50 euros on this for ez 45x

Brentford-Man City 2
Chelsea-Bournemouth X
Nottingham-Liverpool 1

Thoughts?

>>146672005
forest over liverpool?
chelsea to draw?

you're a brave person

i'm thinking freiburg-frankfurt is the btts/O2.5

>>146672026
and brentford over city lol
he must be trolling

>>146672118
>and brentford over city lol

Are you retarded? 2 means away win and City is the away team

>>146672176
yeah, i am retarded. What of it, LongDrink?

>>146670472
I just feel that Perth will win somehow despite these dumb odds
Going to bet on goals actually because btts and o2.5 is shit odds
Hopefully 3-2 perth

>>146672209
lol what a terrible own goal.

of course these cunts get a goal 2 minutes into the 2H after i bet on 1H goals

>>146672711
Haha many such cases

I wouldnt trust Dortmund at all. I think they have 1 away win this season; granted Kiel is bad but still.

>West Ham vs Fulham BTTS
West Ham has a good squad, i expect the new manager to want to have a good start, play good football, especially at home. Fulham is a solid team who should enjoy some space and take advantage of it
>Leverkusen vs Mainz BTTS & O2.5
Leverkusen actually concedes a lot of goals at home. For context, they concede more at home than they do away, just like Mainz scores more away than they do at home which tells me they are more comfortable counter attacking which obviously they will have to do at Leverkusen. I dont get these odds, i think this is a 2-1/2-2/3-2/3-1/4-2 kind of game

>>146672005
I'd go for Brentford or draw.

Chelsea v Bournemouth tricky...both will have quite a few players missing, I would go for Bournemouth or draw.

Nottingham v Liverpool, quite tricky again. Notts have been winning a lot recently, and they are playing at home, which helps, but will they play very defensive against Liverpool, who might be aggressive and try to increase their lead?

>>146660860
2 wins, a push and a loss. Already ranted enough about Alexandrova. Don't have much more to say about that loss. Absolutely terrible choke. Definitely was not the wrong bet. Kalinskaya withdrew so the Birrell bet pushed. Knew something was up with Kalinskaya based on previous showings so my read was correct there. Ugo Carabelli and Tien played 5 sets so over 3.5 sets worked perfectly. Tien obviously lacks slam experience and Ugo Carabelli is not that hopelessly terrible on hard courts so knew it was likely they would at least trade one set. Definitely my best bet of the tournament so far. Khachanov thankfully got the 3-0 against Mannarino after almost losing the first set. Talked several times about fading Mannarino and was right to do so. Going to try to fade him more in the near future because he's starting to look done. Going to be tough with some of these low odds but he's so bad right now it might still be worth it.

Should have beem 3 wins in total but at least I didn't completely mess up this time. Still considering a whole bunch of stuff for tomorrow so I'm going to post my picks later today.

>promos drying up
>bank fucking around and declining payments
it might be over, freebros
at least i went out on top

>>146673238
I'll bite - BTTS seems like a reasonable bet, but I don't like the odds; took BTTS no draw instead
Small bet, for fun

>>146670535
>>146671984
Google images search. Keyword: sports gambling.

>>146671984
>>146670535
I believe it’s the MGM grand casino sportsbook in las vegas

took btts/O2.5 in dortmund-kiel. early but very pessimistic based on how little kiel has been able to hold onto the ball.

>>146675674
lol shows what i know. now the question is whether dortmund can get on the board.

>>146673092
i told you so

>>146669222
You dime betting american fucker

>>146676116
i assumed losing was a real possibility, but i didn't think they'd be shut out.

>>146676507
now como scores. i am 100% off soccer betting now.

rams are going to the owl

>>146675003
>>146675321
Thanks fellas

>>146669196
Philly fans typically are

>>146667841
Buddy convinced me to put 50 on Vikings. I listened.

>>146676932
Lmao last night a friend convinced me to put $5 on the vikings

>>146676932
>>146676946
you niggas need to take a trip to /biz/ and learn what buy and sell signals are. that brazilian saying the vikings were the biggest lock of your life should have told you that rams were blowing out the kangz

>>146677044
The fires, the script, the lions game. Just a terrible bet

didn't the rams beat the vikings earlier in the season? i am pretty they did and i made money on it.

>>146677135
they also took the lions into overtime

bowen still out for west ham?

You guys are actually retarded if you bet on the Vikings with a QB that has never even played a playoff game especially against Stafford. Holy shit lmao. In a fucking dome to boot.

Whenever someone says >its the lock of the year i assume they are trolling

>Bet on Mainz to score
>Their top goalscorer gets injured 3 minutes in
I still have faith, but im being persecuted by the betting gods

>>146677374
are you serious?

>>146677424
did you see how bad squirts was yesterday against that fraud toyotathon merchant?

>>146677390
Yes. He is the 3rd top goalscorer in Germany, which is quite impressive considering he plays for Mainz

>>146677468
writing that one off

>>146677496
Just need a goal to open things up, dont give up yet

>>146677558
right now i am getting the feeling i am going to have to write all of my bets off lol

>>146677672
well i just need one more goal in the west ham match, 2 more in the freiburg one. chelsea/bournemouth and leverkusen/mainz look like slurpers, though.

Xabi Alonso, you absolute fraud hack faggot, score another goal and concede one

need another goal in frankfurt and chelsea games don't give a fuck who does it

>>146678667
just chelsea now

me dodging PSV pre-game

>>146678738
and there it is. wow. today did not suck apart from the mainz match. wish i had put more money on the kiel game, but what are you gonna do

not sure why i bet on this plymouth-oxford game. they were both so leaky, i guess it might help their offense out a bit.

Can liverpoop turn the tide?

reminder scripts get flipped in playoffs

>>146669179
>#1 running back in the league
Not even close. He's a linebabby.

>>146674759
>>146673238
cheers m8

Kinda crazy that if you had BTTS in every game played in England, Germany and Italy today you would lose because of the Leverkusen match. It was a goalfest, even Atalanta x Juventus had so many chances already
>>146678762
I lost a parlay in November because Excelsior couldnt beat Jong Utrecht, literally the worst team in the league. Now they are beating PSV away... Football is funny. Kinda tempted to throw something on PSV tho desu

>>146679476
I mean, that is your own bet lad. Thank yourself, I would've never added the no draw part.
I wonder if i should just bet more in one game and drop the parlays tho

>>146679481
england is usually pretty good for goal bets

>>146679563
Yes, % wise is actually a tiny bit better than the Bundesliga. I actually didnt know that

>>146669179
Henry >>> Saquon

DET-SJS O5.5 @ -122

>>146679696
Mmm
Questionable - they are very similar in performance, but the difference is that Derrick Henry has 20 career fumbles, Saquon has 8
Granted, Henry has 2 more years in the NFL (9) to Saquon (7) but even factoring that in, 20 / 9 = 2.22; 7 / 8 = 0.875
Henry more than 2x the fumble rate of Saquon
Don't get me wrong Derrick Henry is a freak of nature, but he also has had the advantage this season of having a slightly stronger offensive line than Barkley has had
In addition, Barkley was able to get 2,005 yards over 621 rushing plays, Henry got 1,921 over 650 rushing plays (more yards with less plays)
They are both fantastic RBs, but I think Saquon is just so slightly ahead

SOVLbros... we lost...

Lost £10 on Liverpool

>>146680160
i should have taken forest double chance, but didn't since i lost on them with that against city

>>146679848
Best goal match is Calgary/st Louis imo
Going Over 1.5 FP STL and CBJ Under 1.5 FP VAN

>>146673465
Lamens to win a set against Bencic @2.1

Muchova to win 2-0 against Osaka @1.95

Over 3.5 sets in Bonzi - Passaro @1.6

Mensik to beat Ruud @2.2

>>146680303
i was eyeing that one, but i think calgary is on a back to back and are typically an under team. i think STL has been scoring more since montgomery took over as coach. and neither goalie has been that great.

>>146680311
these are the good ones

>>146677044
said this 1000 times and it remains true...90% of >muh lock bets posted on /bet/ lose. The single best strategy you could use is fading anons who seem overly confident

>>146681212
My free money bet in the last thread won tho

>>146681212
every time some one posts this they bring out some -1000 bet that was posted and say
>hurr durr fade that

>>146673245
>I'd go for Brentford or draw.
>
>Chelsea v Bournemouth tricky...both will have quite a few players missing, I would go for Bournemouth or draw.
told you all to do this, hopefully some of you were following.

how did you all do with your market movers?

Ravens ML is FREE MONEY

Eagles ML is FREE MONEY

Novak Djokovic ML is FREE MONEY

Chiefs ML is FREE MONEY

>>146681384
I dunno, bro. Bills defense seems a lot better than the Ravens defense.

>>146681533
this is the only one with them dubs so it wins

>>146681555
>didn’t watch ravens vs bills earlier this year
The bills couldn’t stop the ravens run game. Derrick Henry had nearly 200 yards and 3 tds

>>146681575
ravens are very slight favorites. what do you know that the public does not know?

I lost some money because of Liverpool but I don't feel angry or sad because I don't like Liverpool. I think I may have found a path to happiness in betting.

okc spread is free money vs 76ers. half of 76ers are dnp.

>>146681720
which means 76ers win lol

>>146681729
the spread is over 20pts. at the pro level it is tough to want to touch that.

>>146681600
>trusting the public for your bets
you’re right an underdog has NEVER won, especially a slight one

>>146681729
76ers are down by 16. 1H live spread is +19.5 compared to +10 closing line.

>>146681744
The open line was -11.5. Threw two bucks last night and took -5.5. Threw $40 this morning and took -8.5 and -9.5. Threw another $20 on -1.5Q after finding out the whole 76ers lineup are DNP.

consistent goaltending is one thing the canucks really dont have this season, coming off a shutout last game the canucks are due for a shitter tonight. jets ml easy money.

lamens reminding me why i don't like betting on women's tennis

3 goals already in DET-SJS 2 minutes into the 2nd period.

>>146680311
Lamens is completely hopeless on serve. Another absolutely terrible AO donation.

>>146682297
i took the muchova and mensik bets as well and now regret it.

>>146681996
thanks for the bet

i got tipped devin booker O7.5 assists and this guy has 1 in the 1H. what an awful night after the day went so well. should have quit while i was ahead.

>>146682341
You're welcome

No sweat, minimum leg odds -500? Yes please!

>>146682297
Wait a minute, Lamens has been putting up a fight these past few games. Thought for sure it was over but Bencic has been a little too careless. 5-5 in the second set now. Would be crazy if Lamens actually pulls this off because her serve was beyond atrocious for a set and a half.

>>146682032
cashed

>>146681996
>>146679848
Good shit guys
Post more tips

>>146682652
irving is back!

anon was right canucks are getting btfo

>>146682721
i should have taken it. i took the over on stl-calgary after i wasn't going to. regretting it.

>>146682706
hey lebron! where's kyrie?!

>>146682661
she is struggling to get it to the tiebreak

would’ve put $100 on la golf club but fandoodoo deposit was down for some reason

>>146682859
Really did all that just to lose in an uneventful tiebreak anyway. Very typical. At least Muchova is completely dominating.

when you have a blacklist stick to it. you have it for a reason.

>>146682984
she gave it a real go, though. so it ended up being a good tip. you weren't out in left field on it.

>>146681996
Looks like it hit easy but this is textbook Gambler's Fallacy lol

>>146683001
Yeah, now that the match is over and Lamens actually woke up in the second set I don't think it was that terrible of a pick. But I really need to change my habit of riding with certain players like Lamens or Sawangkaew a bit too much when they've convinced me with a performance in a smaller tournament or two. I'm saying this but I'll probably get baited by some plus odds on Lamens in a like a month anyway because I think they're too long.

>>146682371
need OT to hit

>>146683117
not a good bet. too high of a number and got baited by even money.

>>146682984
>At least Muchova is completely dominating.
we'll see about that

Bet $100 to win $10 on djoker winning 1st set
please hedge accordingly

>>146683147
not happening

>>146683311
This deuce decides the set. If Muchova can break here she's getting the 2-0. If it goes to 1-4 then yeah, it's over.

>>146683309
Novak gives away the first set a lot

went from up $100 on the day to down $150

>>146683334
Ok, it's over. Just start fading everything I post for AO from here on out. Doesn't matter if it's a favourite or underdog, something always goes wrong. of course Muchova wipes the floor with Osaka in the first set and then struggles in the second one.

>>146683339
go ahead
win some money
bet against me

boggles the mind i second guessed myself on NHL from an australian's opinion

Let's go Bucks!!
I had a bet where all the legs had hit, but Lillard was at 12 out of 20 going into the 4th quarter, so I cashed out at a small profit rather than risking it
Dame then went on to score 12 in the 4th quarter, where I would have hit the bet - doh
I can't complain, very happy that we broke the Kings 7 win streak, and not only beating them, but winning by 15 (up by 28 at one point!)

>>146670535
Are there no sportsbooks in Australia?

>>146683375
t. shlomo bookiestein

At some point I'm sure I'll stop posting stinkers, so Newcastle to win and Isak to score @1.85.

good thing i stayed away because dortmund got routed

>>146683676
lmao
u mad i made an easy $10
that paid for my six pack of beer tonight

Mmmmm
The Bucks are my team, I support them unconditionally.. however.. they are playing the Orlando Magic tomorrow.
It is going to be a back-to-back game for the Bucks, they just had a 130 point game vs the Kings today
In addition, Paolo Banchero is back for the Magic, Bucks were just barely able to win by 3 points on Friday Jan 10
Normally, I would always bet on Bucks, regardless of the conditions.. but Magic are +205, Bucks -250 going into tomorrow
I don't think this pricing is accurate, for a back-to-back game, with Banchero back, plus only winning by 3 last game..
I think that there might actually be advantage in picking the Magic to win.. I probably won't take the bet, as my fiancee would be super pissed if she found out I was rooting against our team, but I'm very tempted to actually take the Magic to win and keep it a secret..
If it was only +100 to +150 Magic it wouldn't be as attractive, but +205, less than 33% implied probability, I think this is very under repped for conditions of this game

Dang it. The Mavs might not hit 105.

>>146683694
he apparently has a thigh problem and is a game time decision for tomorrow

>>146684174
in addition, this game we had 2 players who normally get a lot of minutes out with injuries, where we had Lillard / Giannis play the entire 1st quarter without being subbed out (highly unusual), where the Bucks in general are more taxed, and then having to go into a back-to-back game
Hmmm
I really don't think the Bucks have a 71% chance to win this game, I think it is much closer to 50-50 -- 83% of bets placed are on the Bucks to win, I think this is irrational, especially with this pricing
Perhaps I'm pleasantly surprised
For perspective, Paolo Banchero averages 28.4ppg, got injured Oct 30, this will be his 3rd game since returning (he scored 34 points vs the Bucks last Friday)
I think the Magic will be playing to win, gunning for revenge on the narrow loss - Bucks will be playing half-assed, tired from the game today
The Magic last played on Sunday, so they have ~3 days of rest
In the game today, Bucks were forced to have on the floor AJ Green, Ryan Rollins, Pat Connaughton, Bobby Portis, and Brook Lopez at one point - this is the weakest 5 combination we can field other than putting in 3rd string
If we are forced into a similar position, there's no chance the Magic doesn't pull ahead
maybe I don't bet at all, and just root for the Bucks

>>146684341
ok nvm then fuck

>>146684174
>>146684385
I think the betting markets are looking at Magic injury report and going
>oh Jalen Suggs is out
>oh Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is out
>oh Franz Wagner is out
>oh Goga Bitadze is injured and won't be playing his best
but not thinking about that Jalen Suggs wasn't in the last game vs the Bucks, Kentavious only played 11 mins and scored 3 points vs the Bucks, Franz Wagner has been out since Dec. 6, and Goga only got 4 points 5 rebounds vs the Bucks; and they were able to make the score 106-109 on Friday
mmmmmmmm - I think I'll just stay away from betting on it, as it would be more painful to bet on the Bucks and lose (knowing all this information and that I should have trusted my gut to bet on the Magic) and slightly less painful to bet on the Magic to win and root against my team, in addition to violating my fiancees trust
If one of you do bet on the Magic to win, pls post it, so I can live vicariously through you

100 parlay on merab and arman nets 1380 fuck boys

Probably a losing bet, but it's no sweat.

>>146684805
I think it's a good bet, I agree with all your picks
I think most people here would agree with them as well, other than the few psychos we have here who think the Rams are going to beat the Eagles

>>146684896
We'll see!

>>146684554
I might take magic +5.5. Dame and Giannis played over 35minutes. Tristan Silva is back on the lineup.

>>146684990
I think this is a reasonable expectation
Unpopular opinion.. I think the Ravens will win against the Bills, Chiefs will of course beat Texans, which would mean Ravens vs Chiefs
I think the Chiefs will be favorites to win (naturally) but I think the Ravens will surprise upset win against the Chiefs, where it will end up Lions vs Ravens Super Bowl
The Ravens are better than the Chiefs in almost every metric, at the most basic level, Ravens #1 offense, Chiefs #16 offense - granted, the Ravens have the #31 passing defense which Mahomes might tear up; I can also understand the argument that
>Chiefs never really had a game where they were forced to rack up yards / the score, where they were super composed and able to win comfortably, so their stats aren't 'padded'
I think the Chiefs are (slightly) overrated this season, where everybody is taking for granted that they are going to the Super Bowl like it's a given

>>146685081
Baltimore will handily beat Buffalo and KC but find a way to lose to Philly/Detroit in the owl

>>146685081
>Baltimore has the #31 pass D
Misleading stat. Their run D is incredible so everyone only throws on them. Inflates the pass D numbers

>>146685081
Da bills beat da chiefs this season there's no way they don't get the rematch for Mahomes

also speaking rematches the Rams lost to both the eagles and lions in the regular season

>>146685308
Yah skipping shitty matches like that feels like a win. Tomorrow I like the first 2 Mexican women’s matches and Utrecht/waalwijk

I want to bet on something. Suggest me a winner!

>>146686345
Well, thanks forsuggesting something for me. I went and had a bet anyway, on a dog in Rockhampton. Fucken thing came almost last :(

>>146686591
why not bet on a fast dog

>be fanduel
>give 30% boost on Kansas Iowa
>cut 20 points off the Kansas ML
I hate these kikes so much

I don't want to look at what his potential assists were. Brutal.

My bet today. Dont have much faith on it but here it is nonetheless

>>146680311
2 wins and 2 losses. Passaro won the third set for the over 3.5 sets. Knew bonzi didn't have it in him to win 3-0. Mensik pretty convincingly beat Ruud. Love fading Ruud outside of clay when possible. Lamens woke up too late in the second set to turn it fully around and Muchova became shockingly bad after a first set domination. No clue what happened, it's like she forgot to play. Should have just taken the Pegula 2-0 I was eyeing but I thought Muchova would be a better choice since I keep underestimating Mertens. Going to try for one more night to actually do better than sort of break even.

>>146682963
did you win?

>>146687514
I don’t speak fishfucker
I can’t tell what you bet on

>>146688002
i think it is both teams to score - yes

Doesnt matter, i lost
Need a (winning) bet

Looking at the stats of EPL games that are on today, it looks like the best choice among moneylines is Aston Villa to win against Everton, +125
Can one of you poms please explain to me why this isn't a good bet / why Everton is likely to draw or even win - I know nothing about the EPL, just analyzing their recent records

>>146688892
everton has played some tough teams to very grindy outcomes. 1-1, 0-0. they park the bus and play negative football.

>>146688963
that's fair - out of the last 10 matches, held #7 Manchester City to a draw, held #4 Chelsea to a draw, held #3 Arsenal to a draw (Aston Villa #8)
do you like Draw @+225 better than Aston Villa to win @+125?

>>146689000
i am avoiding it.

>>146689025
fair - are you betting on any of the matches today?

>>146689059
a number of them, though so far only one EPL match. i took Leicester-Palace BTTS/O2.5

does anyone know if the 76ers are having their top guys play tonight?

>>146689085
Hmm. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it looks like Leicester and Crystal Palace both suck - why do you think that they'll both score, and one of them to score 2+?
Ahh.. I see Crystal Palace avg match goals is 2.45 (away 2.44), for Leicester 3.35 (at home 2.8)
Palace 1.22 while away, Leicester 1.1 at home
hmmm
what other bets do you have / what is your favorite of the lot?

>>146689137
have to wait around 5-6pm

>>146689146
Almeria-Leganes O2.5 @ -105

>>146689252
Thank you - I ended up placing a small bet on Everton - Aston Villa 0-0 correct score because of you (I know that you are avoiding it)
Very high chance I lose the bet @+700 (only 12.5% chance of success)

thank you effort poster. I appreciate your posts as always.

are twente and go ahead eagles really going to slurp?

>>146689252
wow already scored

need a nantes goal

>>146688892
Aston Villa has been strangely shaky, especially away
Everton has a new gaffa.

>>146689917
spoke too soon. we'll see how this one goes. almeria smoked sevilla last cup game.

>>146687155
It was fast for the first 20 metres

>>146689976
doesn't look like i am going to get it

>>146690080
just one more

>>146690159
and there it is lol. was giving up on it. now one more goal in the twente match please.

team to get the most corners - aston villa
race to 5 corners - aston villa
same game parlay @ 2.00

>>146690397
would have taken it. did not get it in time.

i'm leipzig-stuttgart BTTS/O2.5

Monitoring Utrecht/X
If you have the cojones i think putting something on them winning straight up is worth it tho

i was going to take augsburg-union BTTS @ -115 and hesitated on it. augsburg scored already.

>>146690691
anyway, there is our almeria goal. these guys are going up to the top league. i figured they would be looking to take it to them.

almeria/legantes O2.5. thanks anon for the tip

you losers will never know what a real win feels like

Took Utrecht to win 2nd half
They are the best team in the league away from home with 0 defeats
RKC has 1 home league win whole season
I know its a cup game but since they are teams from the same league i still think its fair to apply those stats

This weekends parlay.
>inb4 how much is that in real money
all values are in USD

leicester is certainly trying to get a goal, so at least that part of my thinking was on.

Goal Utrecht. Naisu

>>146690554
please do not tell me stuttgart is going to get blanked at home

>>146690824
Ameida gets subbed

PSG/X 1st half

need another goal in brugge/genk. hopefully they don't decide to slurp it to extra time

>>146687514
Dont tell me this shit wont hit because Bodo/Glimt, who was also the lowest odd, didnt score in a friendly
At least i had a good read on Utrecht
Also PSG was a hit

bank throttled my daily transactions. kikes had the audacity to blame fraud issues. as if the casinos dont have the absolute best fraud prevention. dickheads just cant tell the difference between fraud and lying degenerates whose wives caught them losing

>>146691175
oh i needed that in the worst way after some losses yesterday

>>146690824
How do you bet in dollar what site?

they're killing me here

>>146691622
>hopefully they don't decide to slurp it to extra time
looks like that is what they decided to do

>>146683474
Well let me make it up to you
Over 1.5 first period goals CAR/BUF

>>146692603
i think i like the general over, but haven't decided. i saw the odds were dropping on it. carolina can be tricky.

lakers
mavs
knicks
bucks - losers

>>146692881
clippers also

mikal bridges O2.5 assists
coby white O4.5 assists

are these good bets? can any NBA anons chime in?

>>146692048
it's a crypto casino. I make deposits with BTC. I can't use normal casinos anymore because of gov taxing my winnings.

>>146692881
KAT is out, if brunson is out also 76ers spread

hey guys how did you all do in your football bets tonight?

>>146693657
Congrats.

2/2 bets hit for me. Pretty happy but it's a shame I didn't bet on Isak to score. Would've been 3/3.

>>146693731
yeah he's been in great form recently, really belting them in.

>>146687591
Over 3.5 sets in Diallo - Khachanov @1.55

Aiava to win a set against Collins @1.85

Aiava to beat Collins @3.4

Navarro to win 2-0 against Wang @2.2

Boulter to beat Kudermetova @1.75

LA win broke me now i'm losing my money on horses

>>146693765
youd do better with jai alai

Make sure you fellas capitalize on the free win this weekend

>bayern munich went 5-0
free over huh

>>146694149
Should've taken chiefs to cover

>>146694149
Mmm.. out of 16 games this season, Mahomes has thrown 2+ touchdowns 8 times, 50% occurrence rate
I don't really like that line desu - if he was doing it 70%+ of the time then I would take it
I do think it's more likely than 50% in this important game that he'll throw 2+; but it seems very sketchy to bet on

>>146694588
It’s their first game back, they’re going to make a statement. Andy has a record for bye week wins or something.

>>146694149
>>146694631
Mahomes 2+ @-155 implied 60.7% chance.. I just think this is not very good value, with a 50% occurrence rate, 10 pts in the bookies favor
I do agree that they will be looking to crush the Texans no mercy and make a statement
I would just rather do something like Chiefs 1st half moneyline, Chiefs race to 20, and Chiefs moneyline which would be -160, and then tack on something 'simple' like Pacheco 25+ rushing @-750, which pushes it to -130; extremely close to your -120
I think the odds of the 4 legs hitting is unironically higher than the odds of your 2 leg hitting, just because of the 2+ TD leg
Don't get me wrong, it's not like I'm saying your bet isn't going to hit, I think it will hit, just I think the odds of the 4 leg above is even more likely to hit without sweating it

>>146694588
What this playoff has show us is that the season stats are worthless
Mahomes will smash the texans and the Chiefs will 100% win it cause they are the refs team and taylor swift team thats all that matters

>>146694727
I don't think the season stats are worthless, especially for player props
I get your point, that stats indicated that Vikings would win, or that Buccaneers would win and those games had upsets
I am not doubting that the Chiefs will win - they will without a doubt win
I am only doubting that Mahomes is guaranteed to throw 2+ passing touchdowns - I don't think this is a lock
I also find it sketchy because he could get injured, or they're up by a wide enough score (without getting 2 passing TDs from Mahomes yet) and they take Mahomes out to not risk him being injured

>>146692725
Ok I’m cursed

>>146694588
Mahomes and the offense were in regular season mode. They unleash the dragons this playoff. DeAndre Hopkins is so underrated it's crazy and now they have the speedsters back and the tight end duo. Unironically the nfls best offense with mahomes at qb AND they get the best defense

>>146694878
reid strat is always minimize big mistakes, keep the score close, and get the last possession. will take a blowout if handed to him but if houston puts up any fight at all theyll turtle up and wait for the refs to save them

>>146694942
That ain't the script for this year

>>146694878
That's fair - and I do agree that they will be going full out / no mercy and will crush the Texans; however even the betting markets have Chiefs total points 25.5+ @-108, over 26.5 @+110 (implying 3 touchdowns, 1 field goal)
If 2 out of 3 of these touchdowns are rushing touchdowns, then the 2+ passing TD leg gets fucked

>>146694964
the script is bills lions if youve been paying any attention at all.
nobody wants to see KC win again, not even in KC.

>>146694985
betting odds are not probability

>>146695012
they are a proxy for implied probability, based upon what people expect to occur, and if an event's implied probability is underpriced relative to the 'real' probability, then bettors put money on it to the point that the implied probability shifts to be more in line. Efficient market hypothesis, everything gets priced in

>>146694996
I also agree that Lions are going to the Super Bowl, the script has been
>blah blah blah Lions best season ever since the team started in 1934
>blah blah blah Dan Campbell turned this team around
>blah blah blah the Lions sucked for so long and now finally are going to a Bowl game for the first time ever

>>146694996
It's chiefs lions and the chiefs blow out the lions making everyone go oh shit and cementing the dynasty. Like it might get to Denver Bronco in the super bowl levels of blowout

>>146695058
the vast majority of bettors are losers afraid to bet unders

>>146695058
> Efficient market hypothesis
lol, lmao even

>>146694874
the thing with carolina is they do a good job of challenging man to man, which can stifle opponents even being middle of the pack in goals against. i did take the full game over, but i am a high man on buffalo's forward group.

>>146695118
nobody wants to see that. domination is boring.
people are still tuning in to seethe at bradys success because of the tuck rule

>>146695242
Doesn't matter what you want GOY

>>146695130
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2020/10/05/are-sports-betting-markets-efficient
>The results indicate the market operates at an efficient level, with very little in the way of detectable bias based on seeding. The higher seed wins a high percentage of games but covers the spread just under 50% of the time.
>The market does a remarkably efficient job of forecasting the actual score for the higher-seeded teams in tournament games, with a mean forecast error of just 0.05 points. The score of the lower-seeded teams is underestimated by roughly 0.5 points.
>There is weak evidence that heavily favored teams are “overvalued” by bettors. Teams that are favored by more than 20 points cover 47.8% of the time (insufficient to overcome the vigorish).
>They found that, “there is no statistically significant evidence at standard levels (5% or 1% level, two-tailed tests) that bookmaker odds excessively price in any particular match result outcomes.”
>The collective wisdom of the crowd is a tough competitor indeed.

>Ref gives fouls every 2 minutes cut to 2 minutes to ads
Not even the college basketball its free from the jewish grasp

>>146695208
if you told me carolina had 28 shots before the 3rd period and buffalo had 2 goals, i would assume this over would be cruising.

>>146695398
If you demand of someone to put 1000 dollars on 2 fighters of which they have no information about, will they bet on the +500 underdog or the -1000 favorite?

>>146695510
okay. we got a 3rd buffalo goal very late in the 2nd. 2 from the canes and then an empty netter.

>>146695519
Anon, it's not just someone's opinion writing these things.. it's studies from PhDs
eg. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12197-020-09507-7
https://www.reading.ac.uk/web/files/economics/emdp201910.pdf
they don't just pull this information out of their ass, they analyze thousands and thousands of games
>>146695544
anyone who understands how odds work, they will bet it on the -1000 favorite
however, what you're not thinking about, is the wisdom of crowds - that if you ask 1000 people a 4 answer multiple choice question, the answers they give will be essentially randomly distributed by the 800 people who don't know the answer to where it all balances out, but the 200 people who do know, they answer correctly, to where when you look at the % responded, it gives the correct answer
Think of "Ask the Audience" in the game show Who Wants to be a Millionaire, where the audience is correct 95% of the time
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wisdom-crowds.asp
as already said, if the odds offered to a game are mispriced relative to the true probabilities, people "who know" will bet on the side that is underpriced - it's exactly how the anon that posts the horse betting stats website works
the wisdom of crowds is not a meme

kiel was a +400 underdog against dortmund yesterday and we had several anons here who were either saying to bet on them or at least don't bet on dortmund (i bet on goals instead)

>>146695636
> the wisdom of crowds is not a meme
It’s called appeal to majority and it’s a logical fallacy

Wow i'm getting rigged by ncaab

Army its being ref balled hard

>>146695636
why do they write papers instead of publishing a spreadsheet with final lines and results for 500,000 events?
maybe because it looks like shit at the event level and only appears predictive after you average everything out?

>>146695752
>betting on indentured servants
you deserve the loss

>>146695752
Oof thank god army was the better team

>>146695519
>>the markets are perfectly efficient just keep betting!
this is not what the efficient market hypothesis would tell you to do anon. it is the opposite, that markets are efficient, where with the vigorish factored in, it's a losing game - where the bookie will come out ahead
this is unironically how and why there are so many bookies - they are the casino, and if the house has the edge, the house wins over a long time frame
if the house did not have an edge, they would go bankrupt.. it's big business, and it's naive to think that the house does not have an edge
>>146695735
appeal to majority is a logical fallacy
wisdom of crowds is not
https://web.stanford.edu/~csimoiu/doc/wisdom-of-crowds.pdf
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7865038/
https://blog.seas.upenn.edu/penn-study-wisdom-of-crowds-can-prevail-a0c1e06503aa/
unironically, if you do not believe in the wisdom of the crowd, you do not believe in efficient markets, you should not be betting as you will lose your money - if you think the wisdom of the crowd is not a real thing; something that has been discussed to death, studied, analyzed for over 100 years, I really don't know what to tell you - it's like arguing to me that gravity doesn't exist

>>146695840
do you understand how many logical fallacies you are committing in your attempt to persuade me that markets are perfectly efficient

Damn if lehigh and boston u hit their free throws it would have hit O124.5. Should have waited in 2H to bet the over. It was hovering around 117-119 at the start of 2H.

>>146695931
I am not arguing that markets are "perfectly" efficient. I am arguing that in aggregate, across thousands and thousands of bettors, weighted by the amount they are betting, the crowd is correct with very high frequency
It is literally how Polymarket is able to predict election outcomes better than any polls can
The odds given by the bookie are accurate - but even an event with 20% probability (+400) still hits 20% of the time - this doesn't mean "omg the pricing was wrong!" when this bet wins
If betting markets were not efficient, bookies would not be able to stay in business - it's really that simple

>>146693059
>mikal bridges O2.5 assists
he's got 1 in the 1H. dunno about it. didn't put a lot on it. at least the sixers are keeping the game out of blowout range so maybe he won't get benched for the 2H.

>>146695990
>50 points too high
>50 points too low
exactly correct on average.

Bills have beat the Lions and Chiefs this season
Bills have lost to the Rams and Ravens this season
Hmm

>>146696061
Didn't they have injuries on the defense during those ravens and rams games? They're healthy now.

>>146696115
they did, but it's hard for me to believe that 2 players, defensive line (compared to their subs) have a 25 point value difference - Ravens won 35-10
it is supposed to be in single digit temperature for Bills game, which should be to the Bills advantage, however with such a run heavy game I don't know if it'll have as big an impact compared to a more pass heavy team

>>146695625
>okay. we got a 3rd buffalo goal very late in the 2nd. 2 from the canes and then an empty netter.
;-)

>>146696177
I think it was 3 defensive players that were injured.

>>146696008
that anon is going to win bridges O.25A.

>>146696177
Lamar doesn't like the cold meanwhile bills dropped 30+ in the snow

Just curious, how many anons here are expecting the Bills to win?
How many anons here are expecting the Ravens to win?
I think this the most evenly split game expectation I've seen in /bet/ in a long time

>>146696447
it's hard to overlook how the ravens crushed them when they played. plus the way some of the better offenses tuned the bills up consistently.

>>146696447
ravens

>>146696447
Dem bills

>>146696353
maybe.

>>146696585
nope

>>146696814
OT maybe

>>146696907
he seems to need 20 or so minutes between them

Manchester United to win and both teams to not score @2.18

I feel this is a good bet since Southampton doesn't tend to score a lot.

>>146684174
>>146684385
>>146684554
Sorry for any anons that listened to my FUD and took the Magic
Fanduel had a promotion where no matter if your bet won or lost you'd get a $10 bonus bet back, so my fiancee pressured me to bet on Bucks despite my protest
Magic completely shit the bed, no exaggeration with 4 minutes left in the 1st quarter Magic had NINE points (wtf)
I won the bet with a 3 pointer from the 2nd/3rd string, final shot of the game
I also received the $10 bonus bet :^)
Very thankful that I listened to her

kicking myself for not taking this oilers over. i didn't realize the backup goalie was playing.

>>146696356
Lamar has the highest passer in cold weather out of all quarterbacks

nets getting btfo

>>146697670
he also has a couple cope mvps theyre meaningless

very nice win on Sonego

:)

Any bet? Need to make my money back

>>146693748
2 wins and 3 losses. Over 3.5 sets in Diallo - Khachanov worked perfectly. Aiava played a pretty close match with Collins. Ultimately lost but it was winnablw and at least she got the set win. Really terrible call with Boulter. For some reason I keep betting on her when she's about to shit the bed. Need to stop overestimating her because she looks good against some lesser players. Navarro had to lose the second set before winning the third one of course. I really need to rethink how I ultimately decide on which players to back. Then there's always shit I keep eyeing all day and don't go for it because I think it's too greedy. Swear I wanted to go for Marozsan to beat Tiafoe but hesitated because Marozsan hasn't been too consistent lately. Keep psyching myself out of winners to instead go for "safer" stuff that ends up failing.

>>146699941
Nice. I've been under the impression that Fonseca was starting to be a tad overrated by bookies given how little experience he has yet but I wouldn't have trusted Sonego to actually win here. Fonseca definitely still needs a lot of growth and match time againt the top ranks.

We finna try this again
>Malmo-Slovan Liberec BTTS
>AIK-Plzen BTTS

i pussed out on betting big on marozsan. serves me right.

>>146701039
>betting on frendlies
Dude…

>>146702341
>No result pressure
>More freedom than usual
>Game is at a neutral place so no home advantage
>Training sessions are harder so they are physically not at their best allowing for more space
So what exactly is wrong about it if you can be more specific?

>>146702629
for club friendlies,is it good to take O.5 goal even if the odds are bad?

>>146702660
If the odds are bad no bet is good, no?

graafschap not off to a great start

>>146702341
you should be dying in a trench instead of gambling on kickyball

>>146703505
>look daddy #1 and daddy #2, I posted it again
Good boy Cletus.

>>146703611
Guys like you are why I don't feel bad about abandoning Ukraine to it's fate

my choice for tonight...

>>146702660
for club friendlies I look at what the odds are for over 0.5 then try to match the same odds with an under goals bet. say the odds are 1.30 for over 0.5, i would try to get 1.30 for something like under 6.5 or under 5.5

>>146703475
they look scared to be there. 0 attempts at goal.

>>146703633
usually i always take O.5 goals at 1.03 and parlay them. I tried taking O7.5 corners but sometimes it misses.

Here's a tip never bet horses
>>146681360
>horse get atr at 2k just before the game start
>bet on him
>he lose 500 atr after i place the bet and he didn't even get 3rd place

Just look for yourself cowboy luke what a disgrace fuck this i lost 50 dollars on this shit

>>146703827
theyre doing ok today - apart from the favourite in the very first race of the day.

no idea why people were throwing money at cowboy luke, that horse has ever won a race before and it has terrible recent form.

For US bettors - FanDuel has a promo for tonight, $10 no sweat bet, either Cleveland Cavaliers vs OKC Thunder or Houston Rockets vs Sacramento Kings
Imo, a lot more fun to watch the Thunder / Cavs game, to see the #1 from Western conference face the #1 from Eastern conference - should be an exciting game, spread is -2 OKC
I have
>pic related
placed - main reasoning is that Hartenstein is out for for OKC
it is of course very aggressive at +602 odds (14.2% implied probability); you need +400 min. to take advantage of the promotion
All of these lines, looking at the last 20 games for these players are fairly priced (eg. Garland 15 out of 18 games above 15, 83% occurrence rate, priced at -370 = 78.7% implied)
Last week, Cavs won at home vs OKC 129 to 122; that was with OKC having Hartenstein in (who had 18 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists)
I don't see OKC winning, even though they have home advantage, if they lost with Hartenstein in

>>146703611
>have nothing to say for yourself
shame
coward

>>146703643
they need to make some substitutions at least. the guys they have out there are content to roll over.

>>146704084
i don't know how they scored 40 goals in the eerste. they look completely inept.

>>146697441
FFS

you think you're smart and then you end up betting on a slurper

>>146695208
Ok
My over games are SAN/CBJ, SEA/WPG and NYR/UTA today.
What do you think?

>>146705285
If its only that one then its pretty unlucky
Captcha: VAR4S
Var for Southhampton?

>>146705659
i was looking at NYI-PHI

embarrassing performance from antwerp

>>146705700
manure is getting dominated, it was a bad bet

got pretty much ever single bet wrong today. wiped all my profit from yesterday.

>>146701956
Same. Really pissed I missed such an obviouy upset. I'm also mad I didn't consider Medvedev losing. I've been fading him regularly last year because i have noticed that his level of play and care has dropped a lot but I've also been burnt quite a few times when he still grinds out a win against some shitter. Should have known he was due for an early loss after the birth of his second daughter and the very questionable rounf 1 performance. Hope odds still are lopsided enough that you can fade him in the near future but I already know he's going to pull out a win because whatever choke artist I backed falls apart even though Medvedev's not even playing well.
I think he is done being a real top threat. His serve has completely detoriated and his level of motivation seems pretty low.

>>146705860
55% possession in the 2nd half, 0 attempts on goal. i guess it's the 1st leg of a cup match so they just want to leave and try again in their own place.

>>146706078
the one i got right was shrewsbury-wrexham O2.5. should have just put the money on that one instead of spreading it around.

>>146705659
>SEA/WPG
i'm thinking about this one, too. maybe wait to see who is starting in goal for seattle. with helleybuck in for winnipeg they'll have to do the heavy lifting.
>CBJ-SJS
coming around to it, though it is 6.5

I need to double my money give some solids tips bet

>>146703633
hopefully some of you jumped on this one. It was touch and go, but it looks like man utd managed it in the end.

>>146706438
>coming around to it, though it is 6.5
it looks like it has been moved down to 5.5 at least on my book. it is a go.

just took away the 3rd goal i needed in madrid match

how are you all doing with your at the races USA market mover accas? I won £37 and £24 on the UK one.

>>146706945
okay, got 2 of them. hopefully that's the end of it since i bet on goal range 3-5

gonna be 42 in the first half. slam the over and go to bed early

good thing i took early cash payout for real madrid.

UFC 311 bets
>$50
(Parlay)
Islam moneyline
Umar submission or decision
>$50
Jiri KO
>$50
Moicano moneyline
>$50
(Parlay)
Almeida KO or submission
Guskov KO
>$10
De Ridder submission
>$10
Ferreira moneyline

>>146700958
Shnaider to beat Vekic @1.55

Bencic to beat Osaka @2.2

Machac to beat Djokovic @4.3

>>146706473
loins chefs guls should be around even.
toss in OKC ML tonite and youre over +200

>>146707154
all in on machac.

a-league tonight. can newcastle and central coast score? got burned on that wellington-sydney slurper.

>>146707272
I was considering takin him to only win 2 sets but then I said fuck it, might as well go all the way if I think he can win 2.

considering vukic +5.5

Heerenveen may have lost me some money, but I won the moral war by virtue of not being Robin van Persie rm

>>146707409
I question his stamina. He is not used to playing in slams past the first or second round and he played two 3-hour long matches in a row. Draper has spent even more time on court in his two matches but he's obviously more used to the big stage and I think he's getting better at handling stamina and match fitness. Often when a big underdog pulls off a surprising upset they don't seem to have any energy left for the next match. I expect this to be a pretty straight-forward win for Draper where Vukic might just give up halfway through when he realizes he can't really hang anymore. Even like a 7-5 6-4 6-3 kind of match doesn't cover +5.5

>>146707686
i lost twice on graafschap. i took them to win and place a second bet on O2.5, figuring it would be a safe conservative bet. probably the worst team i have watched all season.

>>146707738
>betting the over in a Van De Looi masterclass
oh sweet summer child

>$5 Bonus Bet that expires on Fanduel tonight
>$5 Bonus Bet that expires on Draftkings tonight
>$10 No Sweat Bet parlay on Fanduel tonight that will result in two more bonus bets when I lose
>$5 Bonus Bet that expires on Fanduel tomorrow night
>$5 Bonus Bet that expires on Draftkings tomorrow night
>$5 No Sweat Bet on Fanduel tomorrow night that will result in one more bonus bet when I lose
>$5 No Sweat Bet on Draftkings for NFL Divisional Round over the weekend that will result in one more bonus bet when I lose

Good thing I never hit things like this or the mods on both sites would finally be able to hit that ban button for bonus bet abuse lol

>>146708019
Use it on phoenix/wizards. Bet on devin booker over points.

>>146707317
The wsw match looks good for goals, I’m just betting various over goal markets

>>146708052
General overs make sense to me in that game

>>146708019
see
>>146703971

>>146708225
Wizards are gargabe. Plus Beal isn't playing so more Booker usage.

>>146708176
you going O2.5 or O3.5, 1H goals?

if you like the over / under markets, then bet on the Argentina Primera Nacional. they have very low scoring games, mostly under 3.5, and loads of draws and red cards.

>>146708052
>Bet on devin booker over points.
very early but off to a nice start

>>146708433

It also includes Tim Hardaway O12.5 points and he somehow has 9 already.

got recommended O76.5 team total for michigan in CBB and not liking it all that much right now to be honest.

>>146708790
Meant to tag u USA flag

suns game turning into a blowout unfortunately.

There are less bets to choose for this UFC. In the past, you could bet on most significant strikes, like in picrel. Now draftkings isn't offering that bet. So lame.

>>146709066
Man I wish I could bet on draftkings. It's so easy to make money with their over/under points and takedowns market.

>>146706773
san jose needs to pick it up. good to see isles get on the board, but we will see if my thinking that philly would be able to put up points on them will hold up.

>>146709117
same. my current bookie only has O/U for some sports. has EPL O/U but no NBA, NFL, or NHL O/U from memory

>>146709117
There's less options for this UFC event. Pic related. It's a bummer. Maybe Vegas lost too much offering those bets.

>>146709143
sharks have 7 shots on goal through 2 periods. this one looks like a bust.

>>146708246
They score a lot despite being ‘garbage’. Thats all overs requires

Jordan Poole being an absolute shooting machine but fouling out while doing so is a nice knife twist.

>>146709384
i'm mad that i let florida's strong under tendencies this season scare me off the DET game, because the wings have been flying since they fired their coach. someone recommended the WAS-OTT under to me and i passed on it as well.

>>146703971
Jesusss
What a blow out; -2 OKC spread, OKC was up by **42** at one point in 3rd quarter - insane
SGA 40 point game, could not be stopped
I did NOT see this outcome coming lmao
Mobley had an off game from his 19avg
#1 vs #1 and OKC wins by 20
At least I get the bonus bet back hahah

>>146710404
i regret not taking it.

anyone else like LAK-VAN O5.5 @ +120? am i letting that beatdown by winnipeg influence me too much on vancouver?

Taking Ayton U23.5 PR. Hopes he get under 25 minutes.

>>146707154
Absolutely baffling choke by Shnaider. Brings it all the way to a third set, goes up 5-3 and then loses 4 games in a row to lose the third set 5-7. Always on the wrong side of these fucking chokes.

>>146710969
>goes up 5-3 and then loses 4 games in a row to lose the third set 5-7
the ol' duckworth special

>>146710460
You are basically home with a period to play. Vancouver are in disarray

>>146711464
i am thinking about cashing it out. it's very possible we don't get another goal.

>>146711513
I would ride but you do you

>>146711540
good advice

This Frankfurt - Dortmund BTTS MUST hit. Surely....

>>146712502
marmoush won't be playing

>>146712518
They can manage one goal at home in 90 minutes, surely.

there are champions league and europa league games coming up on tuesday/wednesday so if you are betting on some heavy favorite to beat some bottom table shitter, they might be playing a heavily rotated squad.

btts/O2.5 dusseldorf-darmstadt is @ +120

portuguese second division
benfica b v leixoes, benfica b @ 2.15
benfica b has the best home record in the portuguese second division, leixoes struggles on the road 1W 2D 5L, and have currently lost 5 straight road matches scoring only 2 goals in that span. it is risky betting on b teams though.

machac is a bum

bulls ML lock it in

hey romy, can hermannstadt score against fcsb?

>>146707154
2 losses and a push. Shnaider decided to throw it all away while serving for the match in the thirs set. Machac couldn't even put up a real fight and lost in a quick 3-0. Osaka retired after losing the first set to push the only bet that would have most likely won. Great day overall. Think I really have to call it quits for AO if tonight goes similarly bad as well. Can't keep posting bad losses after bad losses. Anybody who has been fading all of these AO picks is probably up a good amount.

>>146713525
I'm an idiot for not more heavily factoring in that Machac tends to have stamin issues. Similar shit happened against Draper at the US Open last year. Thought one single 5-set match against Opelka shouldn't be enough to make him run out of gas but apparently it did. At the end of the day it was an underdog longshot and it's not like you can really complain about anybody losing to Djokovic but I thought he would at least be able to put up a bit of a fight. Will still look for opportunities to potentially fade Djokovic because even though he dominated I think that mostly came down to Machac not doing anything and I have my doubts he can keep this up against opponents who won't just fold over because they ran out of gas.

how are you all doing with your at the races UK market mover accas? I've won another £68, so I'm very happy about that.

fucking bookie didn't push my bet on Osaka

>>146716132
Some bookies have a rule that if the first set has been completed then any ML bet will be graded as if the match had been completed normally. But if they don't have this rule clearly written out somewhere I would definitely complain to customer support.

What will you do with your free money

>>146716667
do those bets get void if he doesn't start?

hard to believe darmstadt just blew a 2 on 1 that badly

tonight's bet for me.

>>146712557
bookies didn't get it wrong. 1H has been a rough slurper. hopefully that dusseldorf goal opens things up.

Chiefs to win + Kelce over 5.5 receptions @ 2.15

What do we think? I don't know how else to make a "safe" bet and get the most value out of this game otherwise.

Trying to farm a freebet. Any recommendations for the Ass To Poop Asstralian Poopen?

>>146717273
the weather forecast is for near freezing temperatures. personally i expect a run heavy approach and an under.

>>146717273
FCSB going to lose at home? I really want to go on them rn

>>146717273
Chiefs team total over 30 and to cover the spread

Confused why people are betting on Moicano

>>146717864
i hope they do. i took hermannstadt +1.25

>>146717864
The game has been ridiculous desu. Hermannstadt only had 1 attack the entire game and got a goal from their only shot.
FCSB has been dominating, this will be at least a draw IMO. I don't know if I'm that confident to suggest it to you, though.

>>146717925
Yeah ive been watching. The other guys cant get away from the FCSB pressure my problem is that IF they manage to do it once, then they will have a lot of free space and probably have a numerical advantage to score again.
Also despite dominating, FCSB hasnt been creating a lot of chances. I think i will wait and see how the 2nd half starts

>>146717148
2-2. that is more like it. i was confused when the odds were so long. it's darmstadt.

>>146717960
>FCSB hasnt been creating a lot of chances
They got a goal but it was from offside and hit the top of the bar in the first 2 minutes. They've had plenty of chances to score already.

>>146712691
looks good at the half.

>>146717987
>They got a goal but it was from offside
That doesnt count, he was clearly offside
>hit the top of the bar in the first 2 minutes
Only started watching after the 0-1

>>146718022
Well it's been one-sided so far.

>>146712691
4-0
Nice bet. I dont know if you are aware that Leixões changed coach last week tho

cambuur goal right before half time. feeling good about this one.

>>146718071
Well there you go. I did say "at least a draw". lol

I went on them to score the next goal and almost shat myself.

>>146717119
GAMON BURNLEY SCORE SAM FACKIN GOALS
but not too many

>>146717119
no goals so far, but burnley have had 2 shots on target....looks promising.

some Elo ratings for tomorrow's games.

over 2.5 probabilities

need a goal in this dordrecht match. don't think i am going to get it.

frankfurt-dortmund turned into a total slurper

>>146719361
>>146717119
>0-0
I don’t think betting on this semen slurping sport is for me

I made a moldel of the Mexican Liga Premier, which is the third level, based on different factors, but mainly autism. I tested it last week to see if it was any good, and it said that 11 games had value. Implying you would've had made a $10 bet for each game, it would've been a $118 profit. It was most likely luck, but I'm gonna post my Friday's predictions if anyone is interested.

>Sporting Canamy vs Halcones
Halcones @ 2.85
>Cimarrones vs Tecos
Cimarrones @ 1.47

>Watching Euro league basketball
>All these air balls and people dribbling off their feet
Sheesh
I knew it was bad but I didn't think it was THIS bad.

>>146719803
anyone who is good gets picked up by the NBA
like watching the UFL, same thing

I think that a real advantage bet for Ravens / Bills is to bet on Lamar under 221.5 passing yards
It is going to be single digits, with windchill feel like -2 degrees
Lamar gave an interview saying how when he tried playing with gloves he sucked ass
I am of the opinion Ravens are going to win, but I think they are going to win through rushing, not through passing
In addition, playing away, harder to communicate passing routes
Imo this bet is a lock, where you could bet 3-5x your normal wager size

>>146720143
problem is bills must stop the run to win and the line says they have a very good chance of winning so theyre probably going to do okay against the run. at a minimum jackson will be forced to try to throw and hes good enough to do it

>>146720143
>>146720233
the lowest temperature game Lamar has played in his career both NFL and college was a 27 degree game
he refuses to wear gloves - his hands are going to be frozen
he is 100% good enough to throw 221.5 yards in a game; but in my opinion, he is not able to (nor will they want to) in a -2 degrees game while away
betting markets also imply that it is going to be a close game, so it is not like they are going to be passing the whole second half and abandoning the run to try and catch up
in such cold temps, with such a strong rushing offense, while away, they will rely on rushing, as they have all season

>>146719728
the under 3 goals part was right :))

>>146715530
Marozsan to beat Sonego @2

Cristian to beat Lys @2.3

Keys to win 2-0 against Collins @2

Also a sprinkle on over 2.5 sets in Raducanu - Swiatek @3.5 since I don't think this should hit at all so it probably will.

>>146720274
dont really disagree just dont think its lock. lots of YAC potential

>>146720613
I hear you; in addition, it's looking like Zay Flowers #1 Ravens receiver is going to be out for the game as of now - it's possible they make a game time decision to put him in (which would increase the odds of it going over)
https://www.sportskeeda.com/nfl/news-not-ideal-ravens-nfl-insider-drops-concerning-update-zay-flowers-ahead-divisional-showdown
If Zay is confirmed out - which we won't really know until Sunday - then I think it is a lock
With him in, I agree that it is not a lock

>>146717919
They're going for the odds only ufc bettors are this retarded

>thought about playing btts+o2.5
good thing i didn't

My bookie has taken it off the market but if you can bet on Central/Defence Force in Trinidad and Tobago I would bet on plenty of goals

>>146721073
i did play it, though i backed off and made it a rather small bet. dortmund just sort of stopped trying in the 2nd half.

>>146721073
i took O2.5 goals. cashout at 1 goal

i'm on the over in ohio-akron cbb

>>146717919
you bet on rounds or method of victory when the favorite is that heavy

>>146708019

I am become pain

>>146721465
bet first baskets

>>146721491
That's more degen. I rather take 1Q total or 1Q ATS

>>146721147
looks like maybe a bust.

>>146721542
akron carrying

>>146721539
first basket is more predictable

Vuc over giddey under lavine under pts multi @5

>>146721633
ohio showed up i the 2nd. looks like it will cash.

>>146722722
yea it cash

>>146721120
Great tip.

Btw I noticed a similarity between American sports and sports in thirdie countries, none of them start on time.

2 quick pittsburgh goals. very nice.

fuck shai not playing vs mavs. -$20 down the drain.

i'm on tyler herro over 24.5 pts

NEW
>>146723667
>>146723667
>>146723667
NEW

>>146720044
No one in that game was good