>>146580348
good luck today, everyone

Almost never bet on NFL but I'm taking this Penn state unders bet all you yanks keep talking about. Hope I wake up to a winner.

>>146580419
tfw my bookie doesn't have unders and i might have been banned at the only other bookie i have

>>146580419
You still aren't betting on NFL tho, you are betting on glorified high schoolers

>>146574744
Warriors are still going to win but no longer a wife bet as it has from +120 to -150

the only thing i am sure about is that notre dame will not blow a 3 score lead

>> 146572404
I love Mexican women.
Other matches should have goals too.

>>146572404
Didn’t format correctly

Tomorrow

>>146580702
Based

>>146580848
West Ham just got a new manager. Might wanna be cautious about a bounce.

>>146580949
I took that into consideration. Still think home advantage and generally having more quality and depth in their squad will see Villa through. Also took qualify instead of win which provides a safety net if it gets tight.

>>146581031
Also west ham are still without Bowen which is a huge blow for them.

any tips for atp auckland?

Penns gonna booty blast Notre dame

>>146581073
or adelaide

Penn alt spread is -4 1/2 for +155 i put a hunnid on it

>>146581073
>>146581216
Didn't take it myself but I was eyeing Basavareddy to beat Monfils. For Adelaide I like Paul to beat Auger-Aliassime.

>>146581287
>For Adelaide I like Paul to beat Auger-Aliassime.
same. also the odds on borges are tempting (1.8)

>Fanduel deposit not working so my No Sweat Bet goes to waste

Nice. Great.

>>146580523
>you are betting on glorified high schooler
That get drafted to starting positions in the nfl which says what ???

ND -1.5 and aOSU -6
parlay
take it to the bank

>>146581339
Personally think Bergs wins but don't really like the odds.

late money is flipping the ML, wow

>>146581471
People started asking themselves what happens when Notre dame can't run the ball

>kickoff 7:30-7:50
this used to be a real country

>>146581715
>didn't play the game cause muh terror truck ran over some people
2001 was the end of the world

>>146581384
The best college team in history loses 9/10 times to the worst nfl team in history

>>146582443
Duh nfl coaching cuts out all the bs they do in college and they have access to better training supplies

going to lose this parlay because devils and rangers decided to slurp in the 3rd period

>>146584041
Explain slurp

>>146584099
not score

Monfils with the 2-0. Thankfully didn't like the odds enough to go for Basavareddy. This makes Michelsen look even worse but no point to keep ranting about him.

hoping this nd-penn st under holds up.

this penis state +7.5 + under 55.5 looks locked in, do i cash it out now for 98% of the value or hold it for the last like 90 cents?

>>146584353
>This makes Michelsen look even worse but no point to keep ranting about him.
he is playing tsitsipas next lmao. so many ways to lose money on that one.

>>146584701
if you are getting 98% i would cash it.

>>146584453
Defenses are still solid. Penn qb is playing like ass

the rams vikings game on monday night will be played in a neutral site at the arizona cardinals stadium due to the la wild fires.

https://www.nfl.com/news/vikings-rams-wild-card-game-on-monday-moved-to-arizona-due-to-los-angeles-area-fires

>>146584856
even more reason (I already have bets placed for Vikings to win) to bet on the Vikings than there was before

>>146584883
i think i will stay away from it. feels like it could get a bit pissi riggitini

>>146584718
The one time they did play Michelsen actually won but that was immediately after Laver Cup and I suspect Tsitsipas was jetlagged and slightly hungover so not sure how much weight you can put into that. I imagine Tsitsipas wins at AO but it's probably going to be an ugly shitfest either way. Tsitsipas has been so bad on hard courts lately I would love to fade him but the odds don't seem tempting enough.

>>146584883
La needs that money tho

>>146584736
feels a bit shaky desu

>>146585124
it's going to fail

>>146585243
i knew i should have cashed out. god damn i get burned so much not getting out while i'm up.

I grabbed a 100 on notrde dame at +350. They were at +800 in the 4th should snagged it

Fucking hacks
GLORY TO SNEED!

I wonder what the overlap is between Americans that just lost money on this college football game and Americans that bitch and moan about soccer all the time.

>>146586436
it felt tight. felt good about it into the 3rd quarter. really should have cashed it out.

>>146573518
>>146573555
>>146580170
Jesus - final score Suns 123 - 115 Hawks = 238 exactly
Bets push
I got very lucky to be bailed out; first quarter / second quarter were insane, both teams shooting 70%+, every possession scoring - my early cash out went as low as $1.00
Then maybe because they were pushing it so hard the first half, they then slid hard 3rd and 4th quarter, and I was able to get bailed out
Very lucky - I am grateful

>>146584701
did you cash out? F if so

>>14658658
You only lose if ur dumb there were multiple nd hedge moments if u went penn

To take advantage of DK no sweat $10 bet:
>Bucks to win both halves +225
>Bucks race to 20 second quarter -120
>Bucks race to 20 third quarter -150
+455
The main reasoning to this bet is that the Magic just played today against the Timberwolves (and lost 104-89) they will be playing back-to-back tomorrow against the Bucks - Timber wolves are 5-5 last 10 games
Bucks had a rough stretch after winning the Cup, but last 2 games looked much, much better beating the Raptors 128-104, and the Spurs 121-105
It is 26 degrees in Milwaukee, it's in the 60s in Orlando - a nice vacation for the Bucks, first game on the road after winning the last 2
Only scary part of this bet is that Magic are 13-6 at home this season; however I believe the back-to-back game will screw them
if I lose.. no sweat :^)

>>146586850
i cashed out at the start of the 4th quarter, but it would have won anyway.

>PHX/ATL exact points 238
Bookies r too good

>>146586581
Kek

Sharing my bets for today, follow at your own risk.

AS Monaco to beat Nantes @1.78
Dortmund - Leverkusen BTTS @ 1.53
Lazio to beat Como @1.85
Rayo Vallecano - Celta Vigo BTTS @1.65

>>146587675
The Rayo BTTS rate is 1.85 actually. Small correction there.

Yesterday I validated Suns and Under 242,5. I got an error telling me the game was not available... when it was 15mn later, i just wasn't confident anymore (after seeing the suns record on flashscore). Could have been a nice night win.

that college football thing felt like a coin toss doe

>>146586845
Damn, thought you won, because my bookie do U238.5.

>>146587675
gonna analyze today on bossman's dime

>>146587741
>gonna analyze today on bossman's dime
?

>>146587804
I mean i will look up today's games while "working from home"

over 7 corners
btts - yes
melbourne victory or draw
same game parlay @ 2.05

Sheiiit. They already scored, the rest of the games is at 20h00.

>>146587891
nice its pretty much locked in by half time. wish i was more aggressive.

Tempted by no 6th goal in melbourne game @1,75 but i feel any team could still score

>>146587891
Incredible.

Idk, i dont think theres much juice in today's games.
Feels like everyone is on BTTS on the Dortmund game, odds not worth it. Considered going on BTTS and over 2.5 or BTTS and Leverkusen/X but might just skip it
Lazio has a good odd, but they are missing some players and Como could be a tricky team on any given night.
BTTS in the Rayo game seems decent value, however last 3 h2h in that stadium ended 0-0. First game back after the break too
Aston Villa is a cup game and West Ham has a new gaffa

NBA prop plays have been good to me, think will stick with that again for today. Maybe throw something on Ohio State, dont know how the odds are looking on that

>>146580419
Well this was a mistake. Lesson learned.

>>146586436
Russia is invading your country and you’re posting on 4chins?
you should be dying in a trench

>>146586436
Saved

>>146579037
2 losses and a push. Paul fell asleep after the first set. Joint got destroyed by Mertens. Samsonova had to retire after being down in he third set due to some issue with her left foot. Absolutely terrible calls overall especially since I was also considering Basavareddy which would have been a another loss. I'm so bad near the end of tournaments. Keep getting baited by plus odds and the favourites I go for also disappoint. Another day which makes me think I should write down my picks and then go for the opposites.

Think Auger-Aliassime and Mertens will win their respective finals which makes me want to go for Monfils and Kessler but I'm most likely sit out these finals and will just concentrate on coming up with losing picks over the weekend for the first round of the AO.

>>146589650
you should be dying in a trench on the other side of the battlefield

>>146589989
I was wondering about your Joint picks, Mertens seems strong but i don't watch the games so idk
i understand that you pick value odds for samsonova for exemple
but Joint did not seems very interesting
again, idk

>>146590124
Froggy you remember keeping an excel back in the day where it said you had worse results if you betted just after you ate? If you think about it, that's what the gut feeling is. The bacteria in your gut. Try eating a 20 piece hot bucket, suddenly the games you were being wary about don't sound that bad anymore

>>146590210
>worse results if you betted just after you ate?
could have been someone else
i don't remember talking about this
but yeah, trusting my guts would have been favorable to my bankroll i believe, although it's easy to say without really tracking
too much time i lower my stake or don't take the bet

>>146590124
Yeah, I keep underestimating Mertens. Joint is on a big upward trajectory and played we the whole tournament so far so I thought it's worth it for these odds. Definitely needs more experience. I always have fear of missing out with rising players because once bookies catch up it's over. You can barely bet on someone like Lamens anymore for good odds. When she won Osaka she was at plus odds the whole tournament. I'm too obsessed with catching runs like that.

>>146590311
Hmm I see

Tomorrow
Feel confident about this one.

What is the Texas OSU bet?

>>146591213
My feelies are telling me Texas under. My brain says Ohio state over

Bet365 is offering a SuperBoost @2.0 (£10 max stake) for Aston Villa vs. West Ham

> Aston Villa to Score First

Is this worth backing or should I leave it?

>>146591288
Go for it

>>146591348
Do you think it's a good bet?

I know it's only £10 but I'm not a fan of throwing money away.

>>146591288
bet ham to get first goal on another book. free money

>>146591370
what if it ends 0-0?

>>146591377
10 on aston
9 on ham
1 on 0-0

>>146591357
Yes

>>146591370
Don't you lose money I'd you do that?

Explain how this works

>>146591357
It's not excellent value considering the circumstances;

Villa will likely rotate heavily. They have several injuries and a congested fixture schedule coming up and Emery will likely not give a shit if he is dumped out of the cup because he is certainly prioritising the league and champions league.
West ham are having a mediocre season and would probably like to have a good cup run. Potter has taken over and this is a perfect chance to stamp his authority on the team with a result.

I can see west ham coming out swinging against a lethargic villa side.

I took villa to qualify last night and after sleeping on it I'm questioning it heavily. I shouldn't bet while tired.

Tldr; If you need the tenner then hang onto it.

>>146591419
What bet do you recommend for today? Seems everyone is saying leverkusen btts

Wait until 19:00 (7PM) and check the lineups. We need to see how seriously the teams are taking it.

>>146591288
A boosted bet is value. You should take it.

>monaco
i was considering them because of the current mess at nantes, glad i forgot

UFC quick picks for tomorrow

>pick of the week
Roman Kopylov to win (by decision or KO)
>a nightmare stylistic match up for Chris Curtis, Kopylov is too rangey and moves too well. Kopylov will out-strike the boxer Curtis, and if he gets in any trouble at any time he can mix in grappling for the judges' pleasure

>good bets
Uros Medic to win (by KO)
>Punahele Soriano is a retard, and Medic has clean striking and solid fight IQ. Medic probably knocks him out, and probably in the second or third round
Nicolle Caliari to win (by submission or decision)
>at just over 2/1 she's the underdog of the week. She's much shorter than her opponent, but has a great ground game. As long as she can get Ernesta Kateckaite to the mat a few times, I think she submits her. Kateckaite is a lanky striker without any ground game: the submission for Caliari (at about 8/1) is very, very bettable

will drop more tomorrow

>>146591403
something like this except you got aston at even money so itll pay 20. can adjust to profit where you want. as long as you bet 20 and everything pays 20+ youre gold.
just make sure to do it on other books because betting both sides will eventually get you restricted

>>146591830
You can't add a superboost to an acca like this? Help

>>146591943
You don't do an acca, you do simple bets.
Basically do a simple superboost on aston villa, a bet on west ham
you can skip the no goal i think?, there is a risk but it seems low
Your acca would fail 100% of the time besides with those legs

fanduel has jokic 30+ pts at +110
his o/u is at 29.5 on other books. might be able to find it a -105

>>146591943
im starting to understand why /bet/ seems to do so much worst than random chance allows

The west ham match is on itv for any other UK anons who dont know

Took Clermont first to score IN FIRST HALF @2,1
unusually risky as it's farmers but let's fucking go

Another bet on troyes to win @1.7 (ligue 2 french like previous game, football)

I've backed Aston Villa to Qualify + BTTS in the Leverkusen game

I have lost a lot recently so this is your heads up to avoid the bet

I wanna take the superboost for villa to score first but my gut is telling not to

Ok, fuck Ligue 2 for ever. not big stakes, and the bet are not over, so that's ok, but they really hare the farmiest farmers

>>146592388
pussy

>>146592447
You say that but if the bet loses you'll post saying "never bet on soccer".

>>146592388
After seeing the teams I think it's decent value. Villa putting out almost a first team, really surprised.

>>146592496
Its the new manager that makes me nervous. I'm expecting West Ham to get a meme goal which will fuck my bet.

Who are we betting on for UFC Fight Night 249 ?

Soriano vs Medic
Rodriguez vs Bashi
Curtis vs Kopylov
Almeida vs Alhassan
Ponzinibbio vs Carlston
Dern vs Ribas

need some more goals in this maastricht match

>>146592457
you shouldnt bet on soccer but if you do bet on soccer you cant be a pussy about it.

>>146592628
Suggest a good bet

just need a dortmund goal. hopefully they haven't decided to take today off.

>>146592727
Fucking 2-0 already

Thawlts?

>>146592727
>>146592751
got it

Leverkusen 2 goals ahead with 17% possession lmao

DORTMUND SCORED

BTTS LOCKED

A lot of money coming on the Texas under

Villa pls qualify

think i fucked up takin btts in this partick thistle match. they look like they want to slurp hard

Good thing I trusted my gut

Great goal from west ham.

>>146592955
i want to fade these boosts but i know theyll start winning as soon as i do

>>146592682
celtics bulls nuggets ML parlay @ -200
knicks ML looks pretty good too

how is the maastricht match the slurper?

>>146592521
New Manager Effect strikes again.

>>146593168
I didn't take the Superboost thank fuck

My book has +2500 for each team to score at least one touchdown and one field goal in each half tonight (Texas vs Ohio State). Worth putting some money on or pass? It seems so simple. I did try the same thing last night but the damn Catholics and their nigger coach ruined it for me.

>>146593381
hard pass. everyone goes for it on 4th and less than 5 once they cross the 50

Villa look dog shit. Turns out everything I said here was correct except for them rotating the squad.>>146591419

It's a lesson, a reminder. I was too impatient to bet, frustrated of missing opportunies the previous night…
I never do this kind of bet and not on that league, i relapsed.
I could have waited for the more serious teams of today, or simply tomorrow.
I could have avoided all of this, I just wanted the line to go up…
Hopefully I don't chase the losses tomorrow, which aren't big but deteriorate further my confidence.

Clermont ended up scoring right after the start of the second half of course, and I did intend to bet on first to score in the whole game, not the first half. Merley baited by the juicy odds.
Troyes equalized but then had a red card, Farmers moment.

>Late game in the game
>It's Rodez scoring a second one.
Lmao

Time to finally do a night bet, lose it, and go back to the abyss.

>>146593464
This game will be 1-1 in normal time. Game will go to penalties.

Como double chance inplay

i have determined that there must be a way to force books to lift restrictions. if there wasnt then customer service wouldnt be so secretive about the whole thing.
>youre restricted
>we wont tell you why
>we wont tell you can get the restricted lifted
>we wont tell you cant get the restriction lifted

VILLA VILLA VILLA

>>146593695
Easy money
>>146580848
This looks like a winner aswell

Today was a good day.

Trinidad league looks like a dumb goal league
Taking >1.5FH and >5.5 goals for fat odds
Central vs Sando

>>146590831
you think hoffenheim can get 1 of those goals? i was eyeing it myself. wolfsburg is leaky, but hoffenheim isn't the biggest scorer by bundesliga standards.

>>146594196
I think they will both score, but adding btts to the overs isn't worth the small boost in odds in my opinion. These matches have a tendency to end up 3-0 or 4-0 sometimes.

>>146587675
2/4 hit.

Very unlucky desu. Monaco was asleep for the first half and Lazio ngubu got himself a red for no reason.

I WON A BET

*silence*

RESPECT MY WISDOM AMERICANS

it's literally impossible to win money betting on soccer no one's ever done it before

>>146594445
i would win more if i focused my bets better instead of trying to bet on 5-6 matches at a time. i typically bet on goals, as well, not winners. though i do like a good double chance or asian handicap every now and then.

>>146594445
>>146594289
Right here mate^

>>146594486
no it's literally impossible
go chiefs

>>146594499
Oh, kek

a-league tonight. can wellington score?

>>146594543
>lose bet
>wish i staked less
thanks golden knights

Now that the dust has settled
Who would Itty bitty titties and a bob root for?

anyone else like the over in san jose-utah?

>nets/nuggets
nuggets cover easily
>warriors/pacers
pacers 1H. half of warriors team resting.

>win money
>don't immediately spend it on fast food

I'm getting good at this

>>146594851
I win money and spend it on dumb shit like 400 on video games and 60 dollar Chinese take out

>>146594901
>60 dollar Chinese take out
What the fuck do you order? Chinese is usually cheap by fast food standards.

>>146594974
Chinese foods expensive as fuck over here for some reason. Although they do give me big portions and I am skinny so it lasts me a week

>>146594851
I spend all my money on whores

>>146595176
are they cheap?

>>146595217
>Brazil
Yes.

Swansea @4.20 looks generous against an absolutely abysmal Southampton on Sunday. I'll be surprised if those odds hold up.

>>146595397
Southampton are only bad against Premier League opposition. They will beat Swansea.

what do you guys think? anything i should change? i'm a bit iffy on the spread for ravens steelers where i think the ravens may be be able to cover as they just covered as 16-17pt favorites a few weeks ago

>>146595301
>woman
kek

Finna start looking at tomorrow's games and try to cook up something

>>146594563
Yah they will today

>>146595438
You're talking about a team which has scored 2 goals in their last 7 games, and conceded 16. There's something very wrong there. Even a mediocre championship side is going to fancy their chances against them.

>>146595550
I got a weird feeling about the Texans

>>146594543
this is happening to me right now

>>146594598
I’d go under

>>146595217
Usually yes but the innocent looking ones are more expensive

BTTS on everything.
I have to try it.

Genk+Milan+Olympiacos is my other one

i need one more assist from coby white but the game has turned into a blowout

>>146580348
Should I hammer OSU as the natty winner at -185 NOW?

Let's go!! Thank you Bucks
Lost the no sweat, won the other

>>146595635
btts/O2.5?

>>146599360
Yep

psv + btts- yes @ 2.50

could be a little risky, neither side has played a match in 2 weeks and it looks like heavy rain is in the forecast for game time

reposting - Wild Card bets for this weekend (and Monday)

>>146600000
Checked, I’m loading up mate cheers

own goals should count as BTTS tbqhwy

>>146600000
Is that 6 leg parlay just the spread for the favorites?

>>146600821
they do

>>146600844
no, they should count as hitting BTTS in one go

>>146600925
oh yeah lol

san jose has had 6 shots on goal in the 2nd and 3rd periods combined against one of the worst shot suppressing teams in the league

>>146600984
i dont know what type of thing that is measuring but utah is very good at not giving up high % scoring chances and has one of the best corsi% in the league, at even strength they generate more chances than they surrender, if you believe in that witchcraft, they play a very solid team defense that even teams like the panthers, wild, or avs have trouble breaking down.

Chargers over Ravens under

>>146600837
just moneyline
however if you're like other anons in this thread who think it'll be rigged to have Rams win for LA fires morale, you might want to be careful
I do think the Vikings have a better team than Rams, should win, but the rig might be in

>>146601465
So ravens are the only team you played the spread on that bet?

wellington looks like shit

>>146601521
yes - just because I think the Steelers are imploding end of the season, and the match-up is not favorable for them against the Ravens defense
reposting pic related
perhaps this image will help others in this thread pick their lines
for example, I would normally have picked Najee Harris for more than 25 yards, however he'll be going up against the #1 rushing defense

>>146600000
>>146601677
>>146536143
in case it helps anyone as well, here is what the lines looked like on Monday at 12:10am - will reply to this with how they look now for quick comparison

spanish segunda division
tenerife v castellon, castellon +0 @ 1.950
this is getting ugly for tenerife, 10 points from safety, 5 straight losses across all competitions, and 0 goals scored in their past 4 league matches. castellon is currently on a 2 match losing streak, but are tied for 3rd most goals scored while playing away. i dont see any reason to believe in tenerife when they appear to be on the verge of an historically bad season. they arent even on pace to get to 30 points right now, they are in the midst of one of the worst seasons by a club in the segunda division in over a decade.

>>146601710
Chargers -155 shift to -162, Texans +130 to +136, spread increased to -3 from -2.5, O/U shift from 43.5 to 41.5
>Ravens -500 shift to -470, Steelers +380 shift to +360, spread same, O/U shift 46.5 to 43.5
Bills / Broncos ML same, spread same, total same
>Packers +170 to +190 / Eagles -205 to -230; spread 4.5 to 5.5; O/U 46.5 to 45.5
Commanders +145 to +142 / Buccs -175 to -170, O/U same, spread same
>Vikings -135 shift to -148 / Rams +114 to +124, spread same, O/U same

>>146599360
Bang
Good one

>>146601916
yes, very nice. much needed.

My bankroll is up from £100 to £128

Any tips for Saturday?

>>146602219
Texans Ravens the chargers are fraudulent

>>146602244
Can't seem to find a "Texans Ravens"

thinking the next thread could use an anchor post as the first post
so many useful posts here that can be hard to find
also would be good to mention the specific sport for newfags, especially when it comes to relatively generic names like bears, hawks, or warriors for example, or clubs that have teams in more than one league like real madrid

>>146602244
Chargers have #1 scoring defense, #1 red zone defense - they will win; plus LA fires rigging

>>146602330
you deserve to lose all your money betting on soccer
fucking retard

>>146602368
you like btts/O2.5 in the sydney match? it's a quick turnaround for them isn't it?

>>146602388
idk i haven't wtched a-league in years tbqhwy

>>146602385
>i only gamble once a week for four months of the year
well lah dee dah mr goody two shoes

>>146602380
their number 1 defense was against scrubs like the raiders twice, the patriots, the browns, bix nood (who beat them the second time before the refs got involved), the stoolers, the panthers, the kyler murrays, the saints, and the kirk kwabbins.

completely fraudulent D lol they coasted on no competition and got bailed out of the broncos second half
>bengals drop 27 on them
>ravens drop 30
>my bakies drop 40 lmao

>>146602436
English not your first language?

>>146602388
Yep it’s logical that should hit too

>>146602461
Buccaneers have the #4 scoring offense, the Ravens have #3, the Bengals have #6
Guess what the Texans have?
#19.
You are comparing apples to oranges - the Texans have nowhere close the offense as Buccaneers / Ravens / Bengals
The Texans will lose
>they coasted on no competition
Brother.. Look at the AFC South
Jaguars 4-13, Titans 3-14, Colts 8-9
Texans had zero competition, and barely squeaked a 10-7 - the AFC South is by far the worst conference in the league this season
If you doubt me, look for yourself:
https://www.nfl.com/standings/
the AFC South has sucked donkey dick, Texans are lucky to be in playoffs at all

>>146602545
texans beat da bills whod the chargers beat

>>146602502
oh so you gamble on esports at 2am?

>>146602572
they beat them 23 to 20 on Oct 6, literally 97 days ago - irrelevant - literally the only redeemable game from their entire season
the Texans lost to the Ravens, on December 25
31 to *drumroll* TWO.
They scored 2 points. They couldn't even get a field goal. That's fucking awful lmao. Imagine playing 4 quarters and being unable to even get a field goal
The Texans lost to the Jets 21-13 (the Jets suck ass); the Texans lost to the 3-14 Titans - that is embarrassing - Titans are tied for last place win % in the whole league
The worst team in the league was able to beat the Texans, at Texans home mind you

the reddit bet of Nuggets -13 @1,72 bet passed
feels better

>>146602622
2 points on christmas against the ravens lol they didnt care. meanwhile last game the raiders put up 20 on the vaunted chargers D

>>146602688
>they didn't care about getting demolished at home on Christmas!
Cope
>Raiders put up 20
what's your point? Chargers won that game 34-20
their #1 scoring defense is 17.7 allowed by opponent - Raiders scored 3 above this avg
This is nothing to write home about
>honey! we scored 3 points more than their avg points allowed and lost the game by 14 points! we did it redd*t!!
I really think you are making a mistake betting on the Texans to win - you're betting on a team that couldn't even kick a field goal - if you really want to pick an underdog, pick the Packers, where the NFC North is the best division and they are being underrepped (but even the Packers will probably lose)

>>146602688
wasn't o'connell back for the raiders in that game?

>>146587848
I was wondering which film to watch tonight. Your gif sorted this for me.
Thanks anon

>>146602919
damn, i should've posted picrel instead

>>146602963
Triumph of the Will tomorrow night then lol

>>146603117
UNIRONICALLY
FUCKING
B A S E D
A S E D
S E D
E D
Dw4vb4x

got a $10 tennis bonus bet. counting on you, germ

>>146603141
What is Nigel Farage doing on the left there?

>>146603689
Trying to negotiate peace with germans

>>146603756
In German clothes?

>>146591288
today they offer Atalanta to score first for max bet of 12.50 euros i will take it

i have 27 open championship parlays with Ohio State.
I only have 2 with Notre Dame

>>146603790
Gotta tame the german wolf

>>146603659
Nothing is really happening for the rest of today because AO starts tomorrow. Not 100% decided on everything yet for tomorrow but I can already share my favourite play: Kartal to beat Bouzas Maneiro @1.8

Got Liverpool HT/FT and over 1.5 at 1.80. Wishing i went all in on that by now

>>146604804
Crazy odds. Where did you find that?

>>146604192
>27 open parlays
>on OSU
Degen finna lose his savings

>>146605039
I got it live not pregame obviously. About 30 minutes played in the 1st half when i placed it, they scored right after

>>146605154
almost all of them are only ten cents.

>>146602604
bloody benchod bastaerd
I rape you

have a bad feeling wolfsburg and hoffenheim are going to slurp the rest of the way

>>146605995
Wolfsburg hit the post, Hoffenheim missing easy chances. Just one of those games unfortunately.

>>146606476
it was a good bet based on pre-match information

thinking likely gets first td of raven game

>>146607564
I have a bet on Derrick Henry first TD, paired with Saquon Barkley first TD
I think it is the most probable (and the odds agree)
Low probability event overall, low scale bet

>>146600000
I wouldn’t count on Lamar rushing over 25 against the steelers

>>146607564
Lamar spreads the ball out evenly so there’s no way of knowing but if I had to pick one it would be Andrews followed by Bateman.

pathetic from gladbach

Gonna be busted by another rotten German match. Twice in a day. I guess they don't like playing in the cold?

castellon didnt feel like showing up today i guess

>>146608047
why do you think that?
I think the odds are pretty good - he's averaging 53.8 a game; 15 out of 17 games this season above 25 (88% occurrence)
first game against Steelers he had 46, second game 22 (avg 34)
if I was looking for 40+ I would understand your apprehension, but 25+ I think is very reasonable

>>146608511
sorry missed one of them, 14 out of 17, 82% occurrence

Lamar Jackson's under on rushing yards and Ladd McConkey's over on receiving yards will decide my fate today.

Nice now Olympiacos is losing at home to Aris despite dominating the game. Very cool

>>146608793
I opened the stats of the game to see how dominated, it was lagging and i saw aris score
if it opened quicker i would have maybe put a bet on olympiakos
dog bless slow internet

>>146608772
>betting on arabs

>>146608827
>betting on arabs
The games are rigged for the top 3 teams. Odd 2 away was good value

>>146608938
not only betting on arabs, but Ben-Hazima

That Bayern result has pissed me off so it's time to get a bit silly

nobody bets ufc?

>>146609182
some pipo made calls yesterday
>>146592535
>>146591800

Should I just cash out at this point? I'm afraid of Leipzig. It started as a meme bet but it turn out well enough

should i bet chargers straight moneyline or go for something like dicker O1.5 FG or mcconkey over on yards?

>>146609248
Do you need that money? Here is the answer.
Btw you could just cash out and put everything on a parlay with the others games.

I'm already weary of this Sporting Benfica BTTS bet.

>>146609268
see
>>146602380
>>146602545
>>146602622
>>146602736
and
>>146601677
I think Chargers to win is a lock, however their moneyline does not pay well for the risk involved
Chargers have #16 red zone offense going up against #30 red zone defense, so in my opinion, betting on 2+ field goals for Chargers is aggressive - it's totally possible, but I would rather take the line if the Texans had a better red zone defense
What does your bookie have McConkey O/U at? Keep in mind that McConkey will be going up against the #6 passing defense, where depending on where it's at, it could be advantageous to take the under

>>146609412
okay. i took them to cover.

>>146608380
>I guess they don't like playing in the cold?
i think i will stick with bundes2 and the dutch leagues for goal bets. maybe start looking into ligue un uber eats mcdonalds.

>>146609504
Good luck! I'm sorry if Texans are able to pull off an upset win - but based on the match-up, it seems very unlikely as Chargers will win on defense (plus LA rigging)

>>146604624
Bets for the first day of AO tomorrow:

Already mentioned Kartal to beat Bouzas Maneiro @1.8

Yuan to beat Pavlyuchenkova @2.3

Lamens to beat Erjavec @1.5

Parry to win a set against Vekic @1.95

really hoping this is not another high xG slurper

>>146609366
oh well nvm

>>146609773
looks like another 50 bucks down the drain

Gonna go all in on lions and chiefs next week

Done a small stake bet to try and learn.

How do I hedge this?

>>146610354
bet up to 4.72 on arsenal to qualify

FUCK
Parlaying was risky. But I deserved that win god damn.

Parlay 1

Parlay 2

>>146610545
Can you explain how that works if you got a minute?

>>146610112
just one more please lets salvage this day

>>146610862
substitute gets it done. thank you.

>>146610700
there goes the UFC parlay

Lmao 1st play of the game for Texans - fumble

>>146611460
their defense has held them twice in the red zone, though.

and i definitely should have taken the dicker bet

>>146611594
second possession, 3 and out

>>146611626

I had the Joe Mixon U70.5 rushing yards on mine but, I pussied out and replaced it with Herbert throwing 2 TD's.

any insight as to why forebet is predicting O2.5 so strongly but the book odds don't reflect that at all? is it just noise in their model? is liga mx typically low scoring?

>>146612297
It’s the first round which i usually fade for serious bets and both of those clubs I have listed as under teams. I’d go under desu. Cruz Azul is always overrated imo.

today was a very unlucky day, looking at tomorrow's games and its mostly trash

not feeling good about this chargers bet at all now

>>146610755
Anyone? Help trying to learn here

fuck the penguins

>>146602461
this guy knows ball

>>146602461
>>146602545
I was wrong - I kneel
Congrats anon

The best defense but the worst offense this shit its embarrassing

don't think i will make another NFL bet that isn't a prop. i keep not trusting my initial read and it has cost me around $100 today.

>>146615346
we saw a preview of this against the ravens. chargers were bottled up and embarrassed. their schedule was weak.

>All 12 teams have at least 1 rush TD straight bet
>Chargers -3 on one parlay
>Herbert over 1.5 pass TD's on another
>Stroud still 3 passes away and McConkey 4 yards away from going green on the 3rd one

This was a quick weekend of failure

>>146615387
I was going to bet on the texans but after i saw the questionable players being available in the last minute for the chargers i decided to change sides,big mistake i made

>>146615480
the only bet i was going to take was the SD kicker making 2 FG and it played out exactly like i thought it would. i talked myself out of it and just took the spread bet. wiped out all of my profit and from yesterday and put me right back into a hole.

>throws 3 interceptions all season
>throws 3 interceptions in one game
Lol

If I lose my under bet because of Herbert throwing 6 interceptions im gonna seethe

Remember there were two LA teams in the playoffs and only 1 Texas team. Texas just lost in CFB. It is beneficial to have Texas stay in another round when you have two LA options.

Also the Rams are LAs team, not the Chorgers. So they get the fire win over the darnonts

>>146615834

I need one more pass by Stroud and of course he takes off and runs on 3rd and long. And of course the original line was set at 32.5 and I was late getting it at 33.5. I haven't been this upset in a long time.

Sorry for telling people to bet on the Chargers.
I didn't expect Herbert to have a total meltdown today.

>31-12
KWAB

lmao throwing more interceptions in one game than you have in 17 games
impressive, truly impressive

more a-league tonight. can newcastle score? i've seen macarthur +0 recommended.

>>146619163
It looks like another btts/o2.5 to me but it’s raining so I will skip it

Broncos Commies and Packers all get tomorrow

>>146620563
*slapped tomorrow

>>146619927
is it going to be raining through game time?

>Field goal away from the over
>No points scored in the last 18 minutes
I'm fine. This is fine.

>>146600000
>>146601677
Got my teeth kicked in on the Chargers Texans game - who could have foretold Herbert would throw 4 interceptions when he threw 3 all season - I was wrong about the Texans being washed, congrats to those who bet on the underdog; I respect the anon who stuck to his guns
Ravens Steelers game I had some nice wins - couldn't get 8 more yards out of Najee Harris
Overall it was a good day
Sorry to the anons who took the over on Ravens game - I thought for sure I was cooked when it was at 42 halfway through 3rd quarter

>>146622863
Ooo forgot I had even placed this
Another win
$93.20 + $46.50 - $30 = +$109.70 on the day
Hell yeah

Never bet handegg

>>146622863
>>146622933
>>146622992
You win some, you lose some
From the despair lows of Herbert shitting the bed, to the highs of nailing the Ravens game
Soccer is a very hard sport to bet on

>>146622992
I had both Texans over and Ravens under lol

truly impressive slurping in liga mx

>>146621473
Probably very patchy rain, just enough to make everything slippery.
Maybe it helps shitty teams like those 2?
It’s still an ok bet probably

>>146623384
It really is standard for Cruz Azul matches. They also score from penalties a lot. I figure they are a very corrupt team

Arsenal - Manure BTTS @1.8

What do we think?

College basketball picks for Sunday:

West Virginia +1 @ Colorado
Oregon -2.5 @ Penn State
Michigan State -2.5 @ Northwestern

Does anyone here bet on Japanese basketball or is that too degen?

Betting the strong favourites on any early rounds tennis slam is literally free money

team to get the most corners - fc groningen
fc groningen or draw
same game parlay @ 2.00

saquon barkley over 104.5 rushing yards + eagles win @ 2.40

guy is a monster, averages 4.9 yards per carry against the packers in his career and was on the verge on an nfl all time record if they didnt rest him week 18. first home playoff game in his own state in front of his friends and family, guy is going to put on a show to make a statement that he is as elite in the playoffs as derick henry or joe mixon.

>>146623432
should have put way more money on it lol

>>146623908
Nah what have you got?
I seem to remember some huge dogs getting posted and winning like a year ago.
>>146624200
Yeah looking good I just don’t trust bad teams when it’s wet as a general rule.

>>146624178
while I think that this bet has a very high probability of winning, is a good bet, in a similar way to how the Ravens / Steelers game went, as a Packers fan, I am hoping that they will surprise everyone and pull off a miracle upset win
I placed this no sweat token on it :^)
99% chance I lose.. but if the Packers do manage to pull it off, I don't see it happening in any other scenario than outlined in my bet
If they do get crushed as the Steelers were today which is very, very likely, I won't be too upset, as I already came to terms with them getting knocked out 1st round last week, and it's only a bonus bet

kartal getting waxed

it was a whole ago but one time when i was degen betting on soccer games in the middle of the night in a game in the indonesian league, between persebaya and arema, 96th minutes of play, already past the 5 minutes of added time, the arema defender just like bumped into the persebaya player way off to the side of play, didn't even really like affect his motion or interfere with him in any way, the two guys just sort of grazed shoulders lightly and ran off in opposite directions, neither player fell down or anything, but then the referee stops play, goes to the var screen and after like 5 minutes awards persebaya a penalty and they win the game with the last kick of the ball on the penalty. ive never bet on the indonesian league again after that and ive never seen anything so blatantly rigged in my life. thank you for reading.

>>146624885
>degen
Damn right you were

>>146623822
my bookie boosted the odds to 3 so i'll take it

>>146624807
Terrible, wasn't ready to play at all and by the time she woke up in the second set it was too late. Sorry, should have known it would be a 2-0 loss because it was my most confident pick.

>>146580348
Odd 15 hit yesterday.

>>146625561
>$68 bonus bet
a major award

>>146627193
how many hookers does that buy?

Which way /bet/?

For me its Real and Mono Jr

>>146627966
One good hooker but not an expensive one

need a feyenoord goal now in the worst way

anyone think we can get 3 goals out of elche-zaragoza?

I've been wrong on 5 straight O/U on scores and I'm feeling U47.5 for Broncos/Bills. So bet accordingly.

>>146628358
i was leaning that way, too. broncos defense has shown it can be gotten to and bills defense is as leaky as it gets.

>>146627966
that's USD retard.you tell me

next weeks parlay.

atlentico is shit. Just as I bet on them

>>146629235
they are on my black list

eagles win
packers cover
take it to the bank

50 euro free bet on my disposal
what save bet should I slap it on?

need a vitesse goal

>>146601677
Placing another bet for Bills / Broncos to take advantage of Fanatics 50% boost (min. +300 odds)
So far I have Amari Cooper 20+ yards receiving @-150 --- I think this leg has advantage because Cooper is the best receiver for Bills, Bills #9 passing offense going against #25 passing defense - coaches call plays that enable their best players in playoffs; priced at 60% implied probability - 61% occurrence this season 8/13 games 20+
Looking at Broncos season losses, lost by 6 to Bengals #25 scoring defense, lost by 7 to Chargers #1 scoring defense, lost by 31 to Ravens #9 scoring defense, lost by 2 to Chiefs #4 scoring defense, lost to Chargers by 7 #1 scoring defense, lost to Steelers by 7 #8 scoring defense, lost to Seahawks by 6 #11 scoring defense --- going up against Bills #11 scoring defense.. spread has narrows from -8.5 Bills to -8 Bills; it feels like there is advantage to pick Broncos +8 if they were able to cover +8 against similar defenses, however I already have another bet that has Bills -8.5 leg >>146600000 -- perhaps I just avoid this as there isn't that much advantage in either (and I am regretting the -8.5)

What legs do you all have for Bills / Broncos?
Looking for tips to build this bet to +300 (I strongly prefer going more legs with highly probable events than less legs with less probable events)

>>146631047
I could do Bills -4 @-240 - 70% implied probability.. this seems better than Bills -8 @-110
I do think the Bills will win, would be a huge upset for Broncos to win (Bills -450 moneyline, 82% implied probability)

>>146630951
under 16 corners
both teams to get booked
over 1.5 goals
real madrid and barcelona game that's my bet

>>146631047
>>146631156
if the game plays out like similar Bills games this season, with Bills scoring 30-40+, you would think it will create pressure for Broncos to be more pass dominant - similar to how Steelers were forced to not run the ball the whole second half vs Ravens
Devaughn Vele 20+ receiving @-240 70% implied probability, 10/13 games this season he had 20+ 77% occurrence
Courtland Sutton is Broncos best receiver, however, I feel like the Bills (of course) know this and they'll be super covering him, possibly even double coverage; I really don't like 65+ @-120, 50+ @-350 77% implied probability.. 12 out of 17 games 50+ 70% occurrence - I think I'll stay away from this
Marvin Mims 35+ @-175 63% implied; wtf is this pricing 6 out of 17 games 35+ 35% occurrence - dogshit leg

cant wait to see how this misses

>>146630997
doesn't look like it is going to happen

>>146631047
>>146631156
>>146631453
placed pic related

are doncic and irving still injured?

While I’m not confident the Broncos will win I am confident the Bills defense will get exposed

>>146628358

>Already 10 points two drives in

Sigh

need an anderlecht goal now

I have now won 3 bets in a row.

All of them "soccer"

Almost bet on a random women handball match
The other team went ahead in the last minute of the game.
Phew.

>>146633623
don't assume it will hold up. they didn't score the rest of the quarter.

>>146627193
nice one mate

>>146633765
>>146633810
impossible

>>146634193
see? now it looks like the over is going to fail.

are you kidding me, i was leaning real but i wanted the game dynamic before betting
mboop already scored

anderlecht shut out. they were shut out aganst genk, too. think i will avoid them if they are playing anyone in the top half of the table.

Broncos got slapped now packers and commies get slapped

OTT-DAL O5.5 @ -125. it is a back to back for both teams, so this could be risky. but the two starting goalies are not good.

>>146639363
do you like the eagles to cover? are you the guy who got the texans right yesterday?

>>146639617
All the favorites cover today

>>146631694
>>146600000
not bad, won 2 out of 3, modest profit
surprised they couldn't get their 20 receiving

>>146609756
1 win and 2 losses so far. Lamens won 2-0 against Erjavec but both sets were pretty close. Definitely have to look out for Erjavec in the near future if she can keep up with these kind of showings. Kartal completely shat the bed in the first set and then took too long to wake up in the second set. Normally I'm wary of players who have taken longer breaks but I thought it would be fine since Kartal has played so much in the second half of 2024 that she clearly needed a longer break after Hamburg. Guess it was a little too long after all. Also definitely needs to stop with these smaller tournaments to gain some experience for the big courts. Parry was just abysmal. Vekic didn't even play well. Both sets were completely winnable Parry's serve is so non-existent that she could never hold onto any sort of lead. Definitely still doubt Vekic and don't think she's making it far in the rest of the draw but shouldn't have trusted someone like Parry. Pavlyuchenkova - Yuan got moved to Monday due to rain delays so still waitin for that to be settled.


Here's what I have for the next day:

Kyrgios to beat Fearnley @1.8

Goffin to win 2 sets against Bonzi @1.8

Kudermetova to beat Frech @1.65

>>146639463
hopefully that disallowed goal doesn't fuck the bet

>>146634907
I am the impossible man >:)

Pro tip for the nfl playoffs. The chiefs are going to deep dick every team they face. They will score 30+ and cover the spread every game including the owl.

Nets and hornets

Lost fortunes fade,
Dark bedroom whispers quiet tears,
Gambling's cruel sting.

>>146644478
trip on taytay

>>146631474
>98 yards
lol

Time for Baker to drop 40 on the commies

>>146643917
it did. brutal. ottawa might be the only team in the league can't get an empty netter

going to bed, hope these hit when i wake up tmrw

should i cash out this eagles -5.5 bet right now? it looks like it is about to fail

>>146644478
This nigga spittin

>>146645974
Never cash early unless you’re about to go broke

>>146646090
i lost 50 bucks yesterday on an O5.5 pit-ott when it was 5-0 in the middle of the 2nd period and then nobody scored again.

>>146645824
thanks for the 3rd INT, love

>>146600000
Oh well - as a fan I had to bet on my team, though it was practically certain they would lose. Not too upset as had already accepted we were going to be knocked out 1st round a week ago
Small profit on the game
(separate aggressive bonus bet also lost)
GGs

anyone else like O2.5 turnovers in this bucs game? it's at +110

>>146646361
i bet on my team (eagles) and had one of my best days ever. almost doubled my roll

>>146647274
What were the final odds of your bet?
I feel like your bet sizing is all wrong if you're able to double your bankroll on a single bet haha
Congrats though :^)

>>146647419
its was a bunch of bets. and a lot of it was funded by casino play. unusually lucky day.

>>146644478
i am betting $100 on the cheifs and doubling down every week because i want them to lose.
its called emotional hedging and its the best way to bet

Bucs probably lost they're getting excessively refballed in the first half

why the hell were the buccs favorites in this game?
fucked me up and went for the over

Whats up betbros?
How are you holding up?
I havent bet in a while since ive won all my money back (i only partake in the contest of predicting the exact score of each premier league game, which is free)
And i have managed to contact and commission several artists for my fetish art :^)

>>146648027
they looked like complete shit against the saints

anyone know why fiorentina's odds are as long as they are tomorrow?

>>146648944
Fiorentina is in a bad run but monza is absolute garbage right now so it should be fine
Since its an away game i would put a draw no bet, but thats up to you

>>146641506
Absolutely disgusting showing by Kudermetova. Hilariously bad service games and chokes. Frech wasn't even remotely good. Just slightly less terrible. I have this magic ability to pick exactly the favourites in early rounds who can't be bothered to show up at all. Laughable.

that's probably game. baker will throw a pick to seal it.

>>146649872
Or Daniel's turnover here

we unironically bet on baker mayfield. muggiest bet of the year.

>>146650474
I like how the bucs coach isn't calling timeouts

>>146571329
Not bad, 4-4 with a +220 and +450 winner. Alhassan had a chance to take Almeida's back and went for GnP instead too. Medic and Dudakova picks weren't close, rest had a chance.

After Daniels got the face cut i knew it was over

Ooph
Got my teeth kicked in this Buccs game
Couldn't even win one of three bets - Brian Robinson was at 19 yards out of 25 going into the second half and proceeded to lose yards every carry

and of course the 2 tennis bets i wanted to make but didn't look like they will hit easy.

>>146644590
good reads all the same

All in on the vikings tomorrow there its no way the rams will win it even with rig

>>146651267
I would go under too. Stafford is playing like shit

>>146651267
rams have a good d-line. you saw what happened when detroit sold out to get to darnold.

>>146651267
but the fires

this is what the kids refer to as a "lock"

>>146651580
Yea that's good

>>146641506
Tailing you on Kyrgios

this kokkinakis bet looks like a total bust

>>146651267
Idk man the more I look at it the more I want rams

race to 5 corners - fenerbahce
team with the most corners - fenerbahce
fenerbahce on the money line
same game parlay @ 2.60

or

race to 5 corners - fenerbahce
team with the most corners - fenerbahce
fenerbahce or draw
same game parlay @ 1.90

counting on my boy mou to dominate these shitters

>>146651580
I fully agree on all four picks but there’s no such thing as a 4-leg lock

>>146651267
Sam Darnold is horrible and LA has the next JJ Watt. Bet Minnesota at your own peril

>>146651580
dont watch ufc can i get a qrd on why the challenger is the heavy favorite over the current champion in that one fight?

>>146653233
Umar is a larger, stronger, more skilled version of Merab. Very very good at wrestling but he can also strike with the best. Merab just spams infinite takedowns because he’s a weak striker. If he gets Umar down, Umar will get back up quickly. It’s a horrible matchup for Merab.

>>146651267
im hesitant to follow, i would put the vikings up there with the browns, bills, sabres, canucks, and mariners as the most cursed sports teams in north america. they will find a way to not just lose, but deliver an absolutely soul crushing loss.

>>146653310
>mariners
feelsbadman

i just feel like mcvay and stafford are crafty enough to kwab on darnold. they won an owl and have a sneaky good D this year.

>>146623934
Did you listen /bet/?

I think mutts might have a point. Ive been hitting a lot of player props in the NBA and NFL only to lose money on socca.
>>146651580
>4 games to slightly double your money

>>146652158
Kek

Fiorentina to score and Pisa to win. Trying to keep it simple today

>>146641506
3 complete failures. Yuan lost 2-1 as well so more like 4 losses. Some of the worst picks of all time last night. Kudermetova was atrocious and Goffin and Kyrgios were even more atrocious. I thought giving players I'm skeptical of would be a better idea because these players then tend to perform when I don't expext it but that was a complete miss. Especially Kyrgios who obviously is not ready fo play yet forced himself on court. I thought Fearnley winning is top obvious given that so I wen the other way. So much for fading yourself. Don't even have much else to say. Just embarrassingly bad calls. Going to try to get at least get some stuff right for tomorrow and if that's as bad as the previous days I'll probably just stop sharing anything for AO.

>>146652158
Yeah, sorry. Not going to bother with Kyrgios anymore until I'm absolutely certain he's fit and ready to play. Odds were too tempting in a matchup he would normally be a much bigger favourite in.

>>146654912
jabeur gonna win?

>>146655260
Think so, yes. But not like I've really gotten any calls right so far in this draw.

>>146654426
People losing money and you're laughing
>>146654912
It's no biggie

Damn, I’m kind of glad football season is almost over so I can focus on basketball. Europeans are right that we stop every 2 minutes for commercials. Never really cared before but that’s stressful when I have money on it

>>146627939
the one for samuel yesterday awarded bonus bet of $13,699
woweee

I like this bet

Rasm under

>>146580348
I wish I could bet but here in Mexico apparently you need your RFC (tax number) to even make an account in sports bet sites.

And I am a neet so I do not work therefore I have not the number

very nice. took O2.5 in fenerbahce match and konyaspor has scored already

>>146656569
should have put a lot more money on it lol

It's 3 lines or fewer you goddamn retards

does anyone think dagenham can get a goal off millwall?

watch rams get to the nfc champ lol

>>146654303
I think that a lot of EU anons think we're just hating on soccer, in general - this is not the case; I enjoy watching it as a sport, especially the World Cup
It's solely that for betting it's very difficult to be consistently profitable
No amount of statistical analysis can gain you a meaningful edge, whereas in basketball, you can look at 20+ games of history and see how many points / rebounds / assists / blocks someone has, look at the pricing being given for these lines, and see if you're getting a good deal or not
NFL football, same thing, that you can see players passing yards, receiving yards, rushing yards, compare these to who their opponent was and their defense / offense ranking, compare the occurrence rate to the odds pricing
If NBA or NFL had ties, it would likewise be as hard to be consistently profitable - for basketball / NFL, if you have a tie your bet is pushed - for soccer if you have a tie, you lose your bet
Even the best teams in any league in soccer can have ties against a much worse opponent - it is much, much harder to predict the future when it comes to soccer, compared to NFL football or basketball
I also think the pricing in soccer is egregious, where you can be paying -300 for a favorite to win (1.33) where you lose your entire bet on a tie
-300 (75% implied probability) you should be winning the bet 3 out of 4 times, but in reality you only win it 1/2 the time real probability due to ties - where it's mathematically impossible to come out ahead if you do the same event 100 times

>>146657484
>for basketball / NFL, if you have a tie your bet is pushed
is this accurate? if you bet NFL moneyline and the game ends in a tie, you get your money back?

>>146657572
Yes

>>146657572
Yes, it's just very rare because there is overtime for both basketball and football - the odds of it going to a tie in overtime are extremely low
[that's another point, that if it goes to overtime and your moneyline bet wins, you win, if it goes to overtime and your team wins in soccer you still lose!]
for example, yesterday for Buccs / Commanders game I had Buccs 1st half moneyline, the half ended 10-10 - this leg of my bet was a push, it is just removed from the parlay / does not kill the parlay [them losing outright killed the parlay however!]

>>146657572
moneyline on american sports is always final result. normal time 3way lines are always seperate. only football has ties and will push.

looking like a penalty mou might be finished here

>>146657484
Nowadays people are starting to pay more attention to advanced stats in socca too. Also i think that what you are saying applies mostly to ML bets and when you bet ML the same thing could be said about the NBA or the NFL where a good team can lose to a bad team very easily and odds are awful, so you need to go for handicaps or player props
There is value to be found in soccer, for example this weekend Freiburg vs Kiel had 1.72 odd BTTS, Freiburg is pretty good at home and Kiel scored in literally every away game this season.
Feyenoord vs Utrecht BTTS and over 2.5 was 1.92.
If you look for it you will find it, the trick is to stay away from MLs but its too hard sometimes, they look too juicy is hard to resist

Most normies just bet on the favorites to win and think that's a good plan

>>146657484
Unless you feel the need to make like 5+ bets every day, I think you can make a consistent profit from soccer.

For example the overs on the Madrid Barcelona game was easy money.

took btts/O2.5 on these other 2 turkish games. got 3 goals in both, but 3-0 in both.

The main thing is that American sports are all condensed in a single place. You follow the NBA you follow every team, you know a bit of everybody, i go to ESPN now and there is as much info on the Lakers as there is on the Pistons or Hornets.
Socca is a global sport. I follow the sport closely but its literally impossible to know everything, to follow everything. The way to go would be to build a network of people, each one in charge of their own country. Like i dont really watch the Portuguese League but I'm familiar with teams, players, historical data, lower divisions etc, same could be said for a French anon about french football, greek anon about greek football and so on

I think thats what Romanian anon tried to do with his blog thingy but how much can you trust an anon in a chinese imageboard? You always have to assume trolling is involved

>>146658052
even if you have the perfect calls you can still get fucked on the rigging. look at last nights bucs game where every other play in the first half the bucs got penalized. then lol dpi on an uncatchable ball so the commies can score. its very hard to succeed in the gamblru

>>146658082
Agreed. The NFL in special feels way too much like entertainment and fabricated drama than sports sometimes
That's why I only bet on players now

>>146657390
Whoever wins tonight has a fair shot against the eagles
Philly looked like a lame duck against the packers and let them hang around far too long

>>146658481
they made eagles easy prey with the hurts concussion and then having him right back in for the offs

of course fiorentina gets the penalty taken away. just the way this day is going.

>>146658614
and they concede. fucking losers.

I find American sports so hard :(

>>146659086
They're all entertainment first

>>146659086
What do you find hard about it?
Here's a very simple method that I think really helps:
For example..
Tonight, Rams vs Vikings, rushing props
You can see Kyren Williams 60+ @-450, 70+ @-250 - you can calculate the implied probability of this by [450 / 450 + 100] = 81.8% and [250 / 250 + 100] = 71.4%
Then you can look at his season, by just googling "Kyren Williams stats ESPN" then under recent games hit "See All"
Count the total number of games he has played this season (16)
Then count the total number of games this season he has done over 60 yards = 13 -- 13 / 16 = 81.25% -- compare this to the pricing -450 81.8% -- this is fairly priced
Compare to the number of games over 70 yards, 11 games out of 16, 68.75% occurrence -- this is below the 71.4% pricing, so the advantage is to the bookie (as it has only happened 68.75% of the time and they are pricing it like it happens 71.4% of the time)
Then you can look at this website:
https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2024-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats
Look to see the Rushing Defense for the opposing team (Kyren Williams plays for the Rams, so you're looking to see the Vikings rushing defense ranking) -- Vikings have #2 rushing defense
From this, you can infer that Kyren Williams is likely to underperform, going up against a strong rushing defense -- for the season he had 1299 yards across 16 games, 1299 / 16 = 81.18 yards per game
However, because he's going up against the #2 rushing defense, he is more likely to be under his average than above
You can also factor in that it's an important playoff game, where teams are looking to take less risk, run the ball a lot more (as if they pass they risk incomplete passes / interceptions / turning over on downs)
You can also look at the injury report for the opposing team, to see if any important defenders / defensive line are going to be out of the game, just by googling "Vikings injury report" and going to their official website

>>146659086
>>146659361
there's a lot more you can factor in, if you want to be super anal about it, eg.
>is the stadium the game being played on a grass field or a turf field? (turf = more consistent higher scoring / outpeformance games, but more prone to injury)
>will it be raining during the game / is it an indoor or outdoor stadium? (if it's raining, they will run the ball a lot more)
>how has the player been trending recently? (for example, if you saw that Kyren Williams had gone over 60 yards at the beginning of the season, but last several games had gotten very little, you'd be more hesitant to take the line)
>injury history for the player
>is the team expected to lose the game / what is the spread? (if the opposing team was -10 favorites, then it's likely they'll be down in score all game, especially the second half, where they'll be passing a lot more and not running the ball as much)
With all of this factored in, it is reasonable to expect Kyren Williams to run for 60+ yards (unless he gets injured) in the game tonight; where the pricing is fair relative to the risk you're putting on
You can repeat this same thought process for any other player prop, in NFL football or NBA basketball, where you can combine multiple player props into a parlay so that it offers positive total odds - look for player prop parlays that put you into the +100 to +200 range so that they actually have a high probability of hitting
(eg. 4 legs where each leg has 75% probability)
You don't need to know a single thing about the game / have watched the entire season to do this stat analysis on whether a line is fairly priced or not, everything is an easy google search
Of course, the more games you watch, especially recent games, the more you increase your intuition / knowledge / edge, but it is totally possible to profitably bet on NFL / NBA just doing this step by step process assessing player props

>>146659361
Stats like this are fraudulent to bet on you need to watch the games and the kangz defense has fallen off

>>146658052
espn and other sports sites, only really cover the main "talking points" of the game without really getting into a deeper look into each game. x player is on a 4 game point streak, y player was the player of the month in december after doing xyz, this team hasnt lost to that team in 5 games or whatever. i can only really talk about hockey for sure, but i know it applies to other sports as well, each team has like 1-2 maybe even 3 players that are the system, hes the guy the whole team is relying on to make this pass, that when you watch the game it was basically an inconsequential pass in his own zone 100+ feet away from scoring a goal, but that one guy does it with such autistic consistency that is what makes him a pro. and when 1 of those players is out of the lineup, not even with a serious injury, but maybe just 1 or 2 games with a tight hamstring or something, this team will play a completely different game. you almost have to just intensely follow like 2-3 teams at most and watch the way all of their players play including the guys who only get limited minutes, because in the nhl, nfl, mlb, (i dont know enough about the nba) the depths of the bench is going to be tested throughout the season and if you just happen to be betting on a game where one of those players is elevated into a key role he isnt suited for, the teams 8 game winning streak or whatever hardly matters anymore

>>146659449
I disagree - I think they are by far the most consistent edge you can make for yourself
Everything else is "feely"
"I feel like the Vikings defense has been bad lately"
"I feel like the Rams are going to win the game"
Sure, your gut might be correct now and then, but you are not assessing probabilities relative to pricing
You can of course factor this in, if you have hard numbers to back it up (eg. for the season the Vikings defense has allowed X points per game / X yards per game, the last 3 games they allowed more than this average, more than these yards)
I am not interested in "feely" bets

>>146654463
It wasnt pretty, but it was honest work

if you wanted "free money" id say rams +7.5 + under 55.5 maybe under 54.5, the books have this game being decided by a field goal with the implied score around 24-21, over 5.5 touchdowns is sitting at 2.0 while under is at 1.86, so a coin toss leaning towards 5 tds, 35 points, maybe 42 points at most from tds, around 15 points (including 5 pats) so maybe 3-4 field goals implied by the kicker points props, 42 + 12 = 54 points in a worse case scenario implied by the book odds. maybe add in darnold or Stafford 175+ passing yards to get it to + odds

>>146659485
gibbs deep dicking their defense last week for 140 and 3 was pretty hard

>>146659658
i'm sure the game will be 30-30 something now that you've posted

>>146659813
to be fair, Lions have the #2 offense this season, #6 rushing offense (compared to Vikings #12 offense, #19 rushing offense)
where in general, you would expect Kyren Williams to underperform relative to Gibbs (#6 rushing vs #19 rushing)
Taking 70+ or 80+ Kyren Williams rushing could be reasonable, but I do not think it is big a lock as 60+ (of course)

>>146654303
I agree with >>146657484, soccer is a great sport but it’s shit for betting. No other sport has a result so frequently decoupled from the on-field play. Happens all the time that a team dominates and draws or even loses

>>146659658
I don’t see the rams scoring much on Minnesota. Feels like a under to me

>>146659658
>>146660127
I also have the under in my bets
but it worries me that everyone here is taking the under haha - perhaps we're all going to lose, since it's so one sided
I think in general nobody wants to take risks - it's not worth gunning it down the field for a 40+ yard completion with the season on the line, one interception can be the difference between winning and losing, where we aren't seeing any high scoring games in Wild Card

>>146659361
>450 / 450 + 100
1010?
whatever happened to order of operations/PEMDAS

>>146660186
Lol - fair
(450) / (450 + 100)
Happy?
>pic related

>>146660127
that would be 5/6 games under and 1 over wasnt exactly a shootout.
WWNFL will want points tonight. they dont always get what they want but i dont like to be against them

did you all get your EW acca bets on today?

US market worked out well

>>146660412
minister of SOVL

>>146660445
strength of autism...

wasnt expecting such a back and forth game but i still had faith in you mou thank you

>>146654912
Over 3.5 sets in Ugo Carabelli - Tien @1.85

Khachanov to win 3-0 against Mannarino @1.95

Alexandrova to win a set against Raducanu @1.45

Birrell to beat Kalinskaya @2.3

>>146660097
>No other sport has a result so frequently decoupled from the on-field play. Happens all the time that a team dominates and draws or even loses
Id say hockey is even worse

>>146660218
yes ty :)
looks like good advice, i like detailed posts like yours
but i forgot to place bets on todays games, might chuck a few dollars on before the first lot start in 20 minutes

>>146660948
I got a hundred on rams bills chiefs loins

>>146660948
the bottom teams dont fall off as badly in the nhl as they do in other leagues, the worst teams in the nhl still have a winning % over .300, and only like 8/32 teams are below .500, in the nfl and nba the worst teams in the league frequently have a winning % below .200 and almost half the league has a winning % below .500, the nhl statistically has more "parity" than other leagues but bookies still only give you like 1.4 odds for a top team on a winning streak to beat some shitter team on a losing streak. it's not really a decoupling from reality, it's just that the implied odds don't properly factor in the spread of the league standings. moneyline hockey bets are by far some of the worst bets you can make.

so.. is the rig in for rams to win?
chargers already knocked out.. can't have both los angeles teams knocked out, too large of a market to lose / less advertising revenue if both LA teams knocked out.. plus muh fires NFL sympathy
>vikings throw 50 yard pass for touchdown
>**extremely** late flag
>holding, on the offense, 10 yard penalty, repeat 3rd down

>>146661202
>moneyline hockey bets are by far some of the worst bets you can make.
agreed

>>146655562
Betting on Kyrgios is like betting on raducanu or Tomic
Especially when he is hurt, just crazy

>>146660412
>>146660374
what site its this?

>>146661449
Nvm found i guess its time to enter the world of horse betting

If the vikings doesn't win this game i stop betting on american handegg

>>146663306
they probably dont. a second half vikings bet is good though

>>146663445
The defense its not even trying

>6 different Rams players have caught passes
>Cooper Kupp is not one of them

Forgetting that he is on my ban list was quite the oversight

>>146663487
you forget its an entertainment league first

really its a lot like the stock market. getting good at reading the fud is a good start

>>146660860
Alexandrova might be the worst player to ever exist and I'm even worse for betting on her. Can't win one measly set against a Raducanu who is playing like garbage. Was serving for the set twice in the first one. Also just wasted a huge opportunity to get back into the second set which pretty much seals it. Pathetic. When I don't fade Raducanu she gets destroyed and I get mad I missed out on an obvious fade opportunity. At least the Khachanov 3-0 is looking good after a very shaky start.

also EVERY SINGLE TIME you hear an announcer go "im not sure why X just did that" is part of the script

>>146663571
Taylor swift sport

>>146663757
This
I'm literally paying to watch ads and some scripted "sport"

>>146651267
well?

>>146663880
I was wrong there is no rig the vikings are in on the script

I have now won 5 "soccer" bets in a row

Wow Rigged and scripted

you like that incoomplete pass :^)

>>146664119
Pass ?? There was no fucking throw lmao

>>146664167
yea but cause mahomes made that a normalized throw you can argue for it :^)

>>146664566
You can also argue that i'm a retard for still be watching this game

Lads I've got a money printer after so long getting my shit pushed in.

Feels good man but I'm not telling you guys, you're gonna have to eat the same amount of shit I have.

>>146664775
>foomble
just bet on kangz 2nd half

>>146663715
This is a giant joke. Alexandrova brought this all the way back to even, had a chance to break for the set at 6-5. Then chokes it and completely falls asleep in the tiebreak only winning one single point. Can't make this shit up. Just going to shut up now.

I'm done

>>146665123
I made a promise i will never bet on american handegg again

vikings make me sick. going for it on 4th down in their own territory in the first half when they are only down 2 touchdowns. o'connell is a fucking idiot.

that is going to fuck this under >>146659658
, bank on it. i fee sick. going to blow the day for me. right back where i started.

Stafford is a genuinely /elite/ quarterback and if he had been drafted to a normal team he would've had multi owls

>>146666271
Its rigged bro forget about it

These rams beat the iggles next week

fuck kevin o'connell!

NEW
>>146667841
>>146667841
>>146667841
NEW

>>146661449
I would suggest staying away from the Hong Kong market movers - the markets there aren't as accurate as UK and USA.

What I do is look at the market movers before the first race in the UK is about to start. I look on Racing Post and see if the horse has had good recent form, when it last ran, its RPR etc. I then pick, say three, and put them into an EW trixie, or whatever type of acca you like. Look for horses with good market movement that don't have that many tips, as indicated on Racing Post website.